Clinton Operation Runs Aground Against Obama Movement in Milford
By Major Garrett
MILFORD, N.H. — In politics there are operations and movements.
There is an operation in every campaign and the best one always wins. Unless it comes up against a movement.
Operations understand the fundamentals of a campaign and execute them with awe-inspiring precision — everything from the candidate’s message and TV ads, to voter identification and mobilization, to interest group wooing and massaging, to on-site bunting and balloons.
In a national campaign this is a massive undertaking. Getting all these fundamentals right signals important attributes about a future president: discipline, organization, vision and diligence — they always have and always will.
Movements, however, are different and they can sometimes rise up and challenge superior political operations. Movements possess passionate supporters, one or two over-arching causes and a leader with genuine charisma who can attract people even without the well-financed voter identification efforts possessed by a rival’s “operation.”
Movements can be powerful and movements can win. But in my experience, most movements die because they can’t sustain themselves against the overwhelming pressure applied by a superior national “operation.”
I’ve witnessed the following movements come and go: Dean in 2004, Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Ross Perot in 1992.
They all lost. In fact, they didn’t come close. They touched a chord, drew big crowds, attracted massive press coverage and even drove important issues into the debate (Dean the Iraq war, Buchanan trade, Perot the deficit). But they all lost to the superior operations because one or many things broke down, chief among them the leader’s inability to broaden the audience beyond the original “movement” believers.
What we are seeing in the Democratic race for the presidency, I am now convinced, is a movement that may in fact succeed.
It is the Obama movement.
The results in Iowa expanded the known universe of what was possible in Democratic Party politics. Some of the party’s most brilliant and successful leaders have competed in Iowa (save for Bill Clinton, but I’ll be back to him in a minute), and not one of them came close to doing what Barack Obama achieved on Thursday with his win over Hillary Clinton. What everyone thought they knew about Iowa and the caucuses is now irrelevant. Obama changed the game and changed it forever. That is a massive, movement-like accomplishment and what’s even more amazing is this: Obama said it was possible and it happened.
The distance between theory and reality is often what crushes movement because what is dreamed for rarely comes to pass. It did in Iowa and that matters not only at a political level, it matters enormously at a psychological level because movements thrive on the intangible emotional synergy of hope, aspirations and dewy-eyed dreaming — yes, all those things wise observers of politics have long scorned because they flame out and die so frequently.
What’s different about Obama and this moment is the movement has operational tendencies, which is to say it doesn’t live off of its good intentions and good vibrations. This movement gets in the trenches and fights it out — but on its terms, with its gusto and with its inventive tactical precision.
Never was that on display more clearly than at the 100 Club Dinner here Friday night. This is the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s big celebration. It was held in a big dome covering a football field surrounded by a synthetic running track — the biggest venue ever for the event.
What you need to understand about the dinner and the venue is this: it was supposed to be a Clinton room.
The Clinton brand name among Democrats is golden. The party love affair goes back to before 1992 when the Clintons first began campaigning for the White House in 1991. The legend of “The Comeback Kid” and Bill and Hill’s regular and celebratory visits back to the state throughout their presidency and thereafter have made them something akin the party royalty here.
So last night was the perfect night for the Clinton operation to demonstrate that Iowa was a fluke, New Hampshire is home and things will be different on primary Tuesday.
It didn’t happen. The operation tried but just like in Iowa it lost to the Obama movement.
Hillary Clinton’s tables were well within camera range of the TV riser and far closer to the stage than the Obama tables (this is what you can do when your operation seeks to own the room). The Obama tables were on the far end of the domed facility, near the trailers holding the portable toilets.
When Clinton hit the stage, her well-positioned supporters rose up en masse and waved her signs carrying her new one word slogan: “Ready.” It was an impressive crowd and full of energy. By standard operational measurement, it all worked really well. The crowd was bunched right before the TV riser and the “Ready” placards waved happily before the cameras and Clinton beamed at what must have felt like a warm and nerve-soothing homecoming of sorts.
But the first indication of trouble came when she warned that Democrats must not be beguiled by “false hopes” (an obvious shot at Obama) and a ripple of boos arose from the Obama tables.
Clinton’s stump speech was warmly received — of that there can be no doubt — and she certainly appeared to have charmed if not won the room (after all, it was supposed to be hers).
Then Bill Richardson spoke and the Obama movement swung into action.
As Richardson boomed about ending the war in Iraq, team Obama pre-positioned men, women and young adults with Obama signs smack-dab in front of the stage. Hundreds upon hundreds marched silently and cheerfully (some were literally dancing barely suppressed jigs) from their distant tables and into the center of the “football” field, clogging all available space and encircling the tables of the amazed and slightly disconcerted Clinton supporters.
As soon as Richardson finished and Obama was waiting to be announced, Obama supporters hefted placards in bouncing waves and began chanting “Fired Up, Ready to Go” as the fire marshals frantically raced around to keep lanes open for people to walk around the TV riser. Rhythmic chants of “Obama” also arose in the arena as the round O-shaped Obama placards appeared to float by the hundreds in mid-air creating a mesmerizing sea of Obama signs that rocked and rolled before an empty stage.
So intense was the crowd up front, that an announcement was made that Obama wouldn’t be brought out until the crowd returned to their distant seats in Siberia. The Obama legions booed, made a token move away from the stage, but largely held their ground.
When Obama took the stage the response was thunderous and jubilant, three times as loud as that for Clinton. Obama said “Thank you” as a means to quiet the crowd, one woman yelled out “Thank YOU” and the crowd burst out in a roar and cheer.
“In four days you can do what Iowa did last night,” Obama said.
Obama, his voice hoarse, moved through an abbreviated stump speech and called for “one nation, one people.”
“We started last night, attracting not only the tried and true Democrat, but the independent and the Republican.”
On this night, the speeches mattered less than the moment. And at an event filled with party die-hards supposedly devoted body and soul to Hillary and the Clinton cause, the Obama demonstration generated more body and more soul and rolled over the Clinton operation like a tractor tire over an anthill.
And that is why I believe we are witnessing the birth of a movement that may be on the verge of defeating an operation. That would be rare enough on its own. But this particular contest is of generational importance because the Clinton operation is the most formidable modern American politics has ever seen and it would take quite a movement to knock it down.
And in Milford, on Clinton’s best turf, it did.
Let’s seriously hope you are wrong, since Obama cannot beat Huckabee period.
There are only two (2) Democratic runners that have a chance of beating Huckabee, and that’s Clinton and Edwards.
Major: Great article.. Youd do excellent work. I am from Houston, TX and my wife and I were in a rural pct. near Dubuque for 7 days getting out the vote… what a well organized campaign, best in presidential campaign history one observor told me.
AND I went to a 10:30 pm rally on Jan. 1 , 9th of his day… fired up”… “ready to go”… the chant.. I know it. What you see here is a great field organization that gets that crowd out PLUS the movement aspect and I predict you will only see this grow into Tuesday.. wait till you get to SC!… Organizaiton, plus movement, plus money plus candiate is victory. AND as he says it is not just a campaign movement but a movement to change the nature of campaigning and poltics and thus government.. change a city, change a state, change a nation, change a world. John Odam..
America’s eyes are open, and suspicious of the same people pooping on our democracy, that are trying to say they are for change.
Even if they are, they aren’t connecting, because they are out of touch, and forgot what it is like to struggle and win.
Their cushy lives, have taken them away from the struggle, into a “oh I remember the little People, give them some money. Not an education to pull themselves up or a job, just shoveling money in to shut Americans up. Well Americans want their money spent wisely and for a good cause. We are charitable
The real change is the one who hasn’t changed his message from day one.
The real trust comes from someone you know speaks from the heart.
That’s Barack Obama.
For months now, I’ve been fascinated with Obama, and have been eagerly scouring the results of Google News searches for analysis and insight into what makes the Obama campaign “tick”. With this piece, I think you’ve hit the nail right on the head, Major Garrett. Thank you for one of the most intellectually honest and insightful articles yet.
Great report Major. You nailed it.
Thanks.
Why not a change like Obama , hes the Neutral and cannot be Bought by Big Money Politics !! The same old politics is the result of what is reflected on this website here; http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway
Total Public Debt Outstanding
01/03/1994 US Treasury Debt under Clinton 4,512,315,337,989.71
12/31/1999 5,776,091,314,225.33
12/29/2000 US Treasury Debt under Bush 5,662,216,013,697.37
12/31/2007 9,229,172,659,218.31
And the Debt dollars stop at the door of the US Consumer , and the Government , which still is relying on the US Consumer , and the Only beneficiaries from all these years are who ,,, WTO Trade partners , Government Officals , and Financial Oganizations , that the Fed keeps pumping dollars back into everytime , Credit defaults loom , go figure ……..Its time for some new Directions , that pack along with it some real Solutions .
I was a supporter of Clinton but OBAMA changed me…He is the president we need.
“Fired Up, Ready to Go” The whole world is inspired!
Obama may or may not win the election in N.H., at least he was able to show that the public at large , dont want Hillary Clinton..
Quote: …Obama supporters hefted placards in bouncing waves…fire marshals frantically raced around to keep lanes open…. Rhythmic chants of “Obama”…arose in the arena…O-shaped Obama placards appeared to float by the hundreds in mid-air creating a mesmerizing sea of Obama signs…. End Quote
Major! Obama’s team has learned the beauty of timely propaganda. He sold a product like it was the day after Thanksgiving. This is the sole reason why his “movement” has a shot at the “operation”. Thomas Jefferson, when he created the Republican Party, led with a “movement” backed up by a powerful “operation”.
Obama’s #1 problem, in my San Diego native opinion, is this: Will the Democratic Party allow him to dictate the goals and direction of their national “operation”. Obama’s #2 problem: He’s a Democrat. Go figure.
Remember also, Jefferson created a third party that became #2 in the nation, a feat no other person has been able to master. John Fremont’s slogan: “Free soil, free labor, free speech, free men, Fremont” would be great sound bites for today’s media. Anti-slavery and women suffrage played major roles in this “operation”. These were Constitutional Amendments. Obama’s “movement” has no traction when compared to this operation. These were radical suggestions back in the day, but casued the creation of a powerful “operation” that survives to this day.
OBTW: Obama is not offering anything for free. Universal health care gets a blackeye from Medicare and Social Security. Free education up to four years of college might be a great national “operation”. But, a couple of people still think that a Democrat will cost the Nation a lot of money and higher taxes. We”ll see I guess. But I don’t think the “movement” has a chance against the “operation” that has at it core, a “movement”. I have never been wrong in my insight, so this will be a first and a nice present if it happens.
Major, here is what I believe… I believe the Democrats are trying to lose the Presidential Election to avoid having to face world turmoil. President Bush did an excellent job keeping many nations under control. The Democrats made a lot of money from the President’s “operation”; particularly moveon.com. If the Democrats win the #1 leadership job in the world, they cannot make the big bucks; but will have to deal with some rather radical situations that could involve the use of the military in an operation or two that would be longer in duration and more intense than Iraq and Afghanistan. They know their authority to wage protracted war would be challenged from Day 1.
The 2008 Presidential Outcome: Obama fails to get the nod. Republicans get the job to stabilize Wall Street. Democrats make a ton of money wheeling and dealing in Global Warming derivatives such as carbon credits. No one gets a Univeral Health Care Program. Illegal Immigrants receive FREE citizenship
using an antiquated Roman Law.
Semper Fidelis
Emanuel McCray
Little Italy, California 92101-2513 (politically correct address)
P.S. Italian-Americans U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will soon have their flags flying again once the holiday season is over.
Take care. It’s great talking to you.
New Hampshire, grounded in the bedrock of America’s freedom, and New Hampshire voters, watchful, perceptive, and patient, are well known for recognizing what is genuine when they see it. They, and the rest of the country, have been watching and listening a long time to see and hear the opportunity for genuine progress and genuine change that are the essence of Senator Obama’s candidacy. Now a hopeful America watches. New Hampshire, Let It Shine!
Awesome piece, written with great clarity. Much appreciated was the lack of spin. Hope you share more pieces like this. Change is coming :0}
Very much appreciated.
This writer called the outcome of the Iowa democratic caucus with unabashed boldness, Obama to win, Edward to place, Clinton to show. It happened just as dialed. Being so accurate, does not make me a political genius nor does it mean that I am going to quit my day job to become a pundit.
I am simply inspired by the Obama phenomenon and that is sufficient reason for me and countless Americans to be audacious and hopeful just like the man says.
This awesome Obama force that was unleashed in Iowa is going to gain momentum like the rush of an atomic blast that will sweep across this nation with unimaginable captive and winning power.
The feat in Iowa is going to be repeated in New Hampshire. Obama will carry the day and will vanquish the Clinton machine. The Clintons have ruled for a long time and now the time has come to pass the torch of leadership to a new generation championed by Obama.
The political game now has new rules defined by the time and come dusk, the old players will be swept away into the basin of obsolescence and obscurity and they simply can’t stop the time. So good bye Hillary and welcome Obama.
Hello Major,
Know you are busy……..but, when you have a few minutes, please let us know what happened to the Democratic ticket in the Michigan Primary.
I understand only Hillary Clinton is on the ticket. How did this occur and what does this mean for the delegate vote
Thanks,
Karen
A quote in an ABC news piece said, “The Clintons’ leading the party was good for the Clintons but not so good for the party.” When the party and we the people feel that way about you, your operation is not formidable.
I want to hear Hillary discuss her plans — in detail — for fixing the many ills we face. I don’t want to hear her slinging mud (abortion just to get the female vote, when it’s not an issue here). It’s a waste of time, money, and effort! Re: healthcare, she still does not understand insureds vs. uninsureds, nor why the numbers are at 47 million. She still needs something of truth and relevance to criticize Obama on!
The 1/4 Rasmussen poll — Obama 37% vs. Clinton 27%. Perhaps this explains her increasing desperation?
Before you vote, consider what America got with the first Clinton co-Presidency:
• Abuse of the powers of the office of the President
• Granting Presidential pardons to buy Hillary’s election to the Senate. As a woman who made it on my own, Hillary’s need to ride Bill’s coattails and her sense of entitlement (as in “it’s my turn and Obama should wait his turn”) makes me doubt her capabilities.
• Hillary’s long-suffering marriage to Bill, enabling a lifetime of sexual trysts and trying to contain the Bimbo eruptions, gives me a President without the backbone to stand up to a man. Hillary claims to be tough enough to play with the boys when, in fact, she is unable to leave a cheating husband. How will she stand up to other male leaders who see this in “Mrs.” Clinton and walk all over her?
• Being married to a former President does not make one qualified to be President.
Hillary has less experience in elected office than Barack. She’s held elected office for one Senate term plus one year and has introduced no major legislation during that time. She showed us in the interview about Pakistani elections the extent of her foreign policy experience–she did not know what office the election was for or who was on the ballot! Is this the kind of experience we want in the Oval Office?
I am not a “Hillary hater;” I am an America lover. Please consider very carefully which candidate the Democratic Party puts on the ballot. The future of this country absolutely depends on it.
It’s not just the Democrats that are jumping into the Obama Movement. It’s pulling in Republicans.
Hard core Republicans like me….Hillary will never get my vote. But, I vote Democrat for the first time for Obama.
HI MAJOR,
MY NAME IS PATRICIA I LIVE IN THE BRONX NEW YORK. I’VE BEEN WATCHIONG YOUR COVERAGE OF OBAMA AND I HAVE TO SAY I’M VERY PLEASED. I THINK HILARY LOOKED VERY FOOLISH LAST NIGHT ON TV. SHE WAS ANGRY AND MAD. AND THATS WHY PEOPLE DIDN’T WANT TO SEE AS HER RUNNING AS A WOMAN. IT DOESN’T LOOK PRESIDENIAL. OBAMA TALKS ABOUT A CHANGE. THATS THE CHANGE I DON’T THINK YOU OR THE CLINTONS UNDERSTAND. PEOPLE ARE TIRED AND THEY ARE TIRED OF THE SAME O SAME O. SHE TALKS ABOUT EXPERIENCE AND HER ACHIVEMENTS BUT SHE DIDN’T CHANGE ANYTHING. THERE ARE STILL MANY PEOPLE WHO DO NOT HAVE HEALTH INSURANCE. THEY DENY HEALTH INSURANCE FOR THE LITTLE KIDS OF THE US. BUT THEY ARE SENDING MILLIONS OF MONEY TO BAD PEOPLE TO STOP BEING BAD. WHAT THE CHANGE IN THAT. WHY DO WE HAVE TO PAY BAD PEOPLE TO BE GOOD. THAT’S INSANE I TRULY BELIVE THATS WHY SADR STOP FIGHTING IRAQ AND WHY THE IRAQ PEOPLE ARE COMING BACK BECAUSE THEY ARE PAYING FOR IT. WHY DON’T THYE SPEND THAT MONEY HERE AT HOME. RUDY TALKS ABOUT BRINGING THIS COUNTRY TOGETHER HE COULD EVEN SAVE THE PEOLE AT THE WORLD TRDE CENTER. HE WAS SO BUSY VIOLATED PEOPLE RIGHTS BY HAVING THE COPS HARRASS, ARREST, BEAT, SHOOT, AND EVEN KILL, MANY BLACKS, PUERTO RICANS, WEST INDIANS, AND AFRICANS. RUNNING AROUND WITH THEN GIRL FRIEND AND NOW WIFE. LOOK HOW HE TREASTED HIS EXWIFE AND KIDS I THOUGHT A FATHER SUPPOSE TO PROTECT HIS KIDS. AND HES SUPPOSE TO PROTECT MINES. HES ONE BIG MESS. HES WHAT THE DEMOCRATS ARE TALKING ABOUT HES CORPRATE. HE KNEW ALL ABOUT BERNIE AND ANYONE ELSE HE HIRED. LOOK THIS RACE WILL BE HISTORIC U KNOW WHY BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO STEAL IT FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AGAIN.
Excellent analysis, Major. I always appreciate your pov. I think you’re on the money, but to me it’s really scary. Osama bin Laden runs a movement. Hugo Chavez runs a movement. Fidel Castro started with a movement. I think (I hope, I pray) the Obama movement hits the brick wall of national security and actual positions on issues, not to mention the Boomer vote and the Clintonistas.
A terrible injustice has been done to the American voters by FOX’s exclusion of RON PAUL! This exclusion only serves to help solidify the ‘corporape america’ agenda.
RON PAUL 2008!
Change. How to grasp it and bend it to one’s will and how to bend with it and not be driven by the will of others. Politics is the great American sport and change is always central to political campaigns – we see it over and over again, but why?
The answer may not be what you would think. Change becomes the mantra of the candidate faced with a deficit of sustainable political positions and a definitive lack of polished plans of execution.
Right after we heard, “where’s the beef?’ there was a sudden earth-shattering period following the blow delivered by Reagan when the national press annoited the “change” mantle unto yet another Democrat faced with the prospect of persuading a fickle electorate to vote his way when the cupboard was bare of anything beyond an existential “we got better idears”.
I have a funny feeling that if one looks beneath the surface of political euphoria, we may find Mr. Obama’s plans not to our liking. What we do know is that Senator Clinton’s plans are not likely to be affordable, as she wants to give us the gift of yet another liberal big-spender at a time when fiscal conservatism is actually moving beyond the hazy conceptual stage and become a real issue.
Wouldn’t that be a change…
Diane from CA (with one N) said it all . . . almost, that is . . . there was one more movement – Adolf Hitler. The rallies, the youth attraction, the speech delivery, the style, the masses, the organization, the whole momentum. And, before we knew it, it was too late. The rest is history. Just watch those early beginnings on the History Channel. We all know how it ended…..
P.S. Of course, Obama is no Hitler, but there is also that blindly following a new leader scenario that’s troubling to watch, a leader with big ambitions, big promises and very little experience. Very scary. We need a good, strong, mature president in these dangerous times.
(To Karen2): The DNC has stripped Michigan of its delegates because the state democrat party moved their primary date to January. Clinton is the only major democrat campaigning in the state. All other democrat candidates pledged to not campaign in the state–to honor the campaign rues and schedules established by the DNC.
Craig
Major,
Yours is an excellent analysis and synopsis of what undoubtedly is a historic moment in time. What the Clinton operation fails to realize is that this movement is national and shows no signs of ebbing. The major challenges Hilary must overcome – which undoubtedly may be impossible – are an ability to come across as believable and sincere; the contradiction between a political mantra that suggests she represents change and the growing perception that she represents nothing new; and thirdly, a seeming inability to win over much needed Independents.
Your insightful analysis may yet be one of the most prudent of this political season.
Keep up the good work.
Let’s not forget this so-called “movement” is a bunch of kids making Obama into a rock star, his stage is their concert. Once he leaves, the thrill, the high, the momentum that it brought will too.
Major,
Has there been any analysis that has looked at the possibility that Obama’s rise is due in part to a rejection of Hillary?
Do you really think there are that many OBAMA supporters? Or are there lots of us that do NOT like the Clintons and will vote for ANYone else?
There is a large pool of Democrats over 55 supporting Obama. Over reporting on the under
50 segment is fine, but diminishes the seasoned voters favoring Obama.
Clinton “Operation” Racism
The most interesting aspect to me was the placement of the Obama team at the rally “by the outhouses in the back”. I cannot help but think that if this was a republican rally the press would have focused in on this, most appropriatley, as “racist”. There is still press cover for Hillary by the fact that this outrage by the Clinton “operation” was not pointed out for what it is: Racism.
It just could be that the “operation” made the “movement”. What if the operation set out to fix the polls? Commited Hillary supporters attended the Obama functions making the crouds seems like a movement and told the poll takers that they were voting for him only to lull him into the winning feeling and that feeling spread like wild fire. The 12 point spread flased on the FOX news station all day (scared me to death}, Then when the votes began to be counted, I could not believe my eyes. It has to be a fix and who better to “fix it”….the “Operation”?
Obama is on a roll, and nobody can stop his massive thrust in to the White House, even Fox with all your resources and intilligent reporting and unfair campaigning and mudslinging against Obama, will certainly fail. His rampage and wide support all across USA will result in a Democratic Party nomination and eventually in-to the White House, come Jan, 2009.
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