Nevada Expectations: Rory Reid v. David Axelrod
The Bourbon Room caught up with Rory Reid, son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and head of Hillary Clinton’s Nevada campaign, and senior Obama adviser David Axelrod to discuss Saturday’s Nevada caucuses.
Reid: “Anyone who tells you knows what turnout is going to be is lying because nobody knows. We believe Democrats are energized and this is an exciting process for Nevada Democrats, but we just don’t know how that is going to translate on caucus day. Hillary Clinton has a strong identity in Nevada and has attracted a lot of support because of her work on Yucca Mountain (the nuclear waste repository the vast majority of Nevadans don’t want) and her push for an economic stimulus bill that will help southern Nevadans deal with the mortgage crisis. We feel very good about where we are in this campaign.”
Axelrod: “I’ve always felt that we were fighting from behind here because she has most of the establishment with her. We’re the challengers, we’re the insurgents, we’re taking on the party establishment. I’ve heard (turnout) estimates from 25,000 to 100,000 so it’s almost impossible to predict. There’s no voter history here. But I do believe she has structural advantages here that are formidable and we will have to overcome them.”
Handicapping Saturday’s Nevada caucuses would be difficult under the best circumstances. Considering the turbulence of the fight for the Democratic nomination so far, predictions about Nevada are riskier than any wager in a state famous for them.
The biggest variable here is turnout. No one knows what it will be. In 2004 energized Democratic turnout was 9,000 for caucuses that everyone knew would have no affect on the race because John Kerry was clearly en route to the nomination.
A long time ago, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, one of the biggest players in Nevada capturing its coveted third-in-line status among early caucus and primary states, said turnout could be as high as 100,000. Talk about betting the farm. There are about 412,000 registered Democrats here and a 100,000 turnout would constitute caucus attendance of roughly 25 percent of registered Democrats.
I am not aware of a precedent anywhere in American history of a state achieving turnout that high in its first competitive presidential caucus. Most Nevada pros are assuming caucus attendance will follow the Iowa model, in which about 10 percent of registered Democrats participated when Iowa’s nominating caucuses first became competitive and nationally meaningful.
Considering the energy and excitement this race has generated among Democrats, it wouldn’t be illogical to assume turnout could be as high as 15 percent of registered Democrats. If you accept the 10 percent to 15 percent turnout model, you would then expect between 41,000 and 62,000 Democrats to participate. But there are other factors that could keep turnout down, among the distractions embedded in a three-day Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend; confusion about where to caucus, and the simple lack of a caucus culture that motivates people to take an hour out of their Saturday morning to attend.
All this makes campaigns uneasy because the only thing more nerve-wracking than bad polls numbers is poll numbers you can’t trust because you can’t confidently create a reliable turnout model. That’s where the Clinton and Obama camps find themselves now.
Tags: Clinton, David Axelrod, Harry Reid, iowa, Obama, Rory Reid, turnout
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Hilary ought to be doomed! America do not want dynasty, we already seen how dynasty can destroy America. Clinton is another Bush crony.
Hilary will lots of baggage to White House including the ghost of Monica. We don’t want another impeachment saga.
Lets turn the page.
PLEASE WHY DONT YOU ALL PUT THIS IN THE MEDIA??????? AND LETS SEE WHAT AMERICANS WILL SAY ABOUT THIS.
why why why why whyy will you not tell all america about this…………..why this is so HUGE OF A STORY,NOT TO GET IT OUT IN THE MEDIA
CLINTON MAKES BUSH DICTATOR
With the full support of Senators Clinton, Obama and McCain, President Bush recently signed into Law the John Warner Defense Authorization Act, which, according to Senator Leahy (VT), will actually “encourage the President to declare Martial Law.” It does so by revising the Insurrection Act, a Laws which limits the President’’s ability to deploy troops within the United States. The Insurrection Act has historically, along with the Posse Comitatus Act, helped to enforce strict prohibitions on military involvement in domestic Law enforcement. With one cloaked swipe of his pen, Bush has now undone all of those prohibitions. The John Warner Defense Authorization Act, which was signed by the President in an unpublicized ceremony, allows the President to declare a “public emergency,” suspend Congress; The Constitution; and to take control of state-based National Guard units without the consent of your Governor or local authorities, in order to “suppress public disorder.” President Bush seized this unprecedented power on the very same day that he signed the equally odious Military Commissions Act. The two Laws compliment one another. One allows for torture and detention abroad of those who dissent and are stripped of their citizenship, while the other seeks to enforce acquiescence at home by allowing the President to order the military onto our streets in a domestic Law enforcement role, which is already being done. Vote for Liberty. .
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CLINTON ALLOWS BUSH TO PARDON HIMSELF
Buried deep inside Military Commisions Act, which was FULLY SUPPORTED by Senators Clinton, Obama and McCain, is a provision which pre-pardons President Bush and all the members of his administration for any crimes which they may have committed all the way back to September 11, 2001. Why that far back? That kind of makes you wonder. Huh? I can”t help but recall what Nixon said during an interview following the Watergate scandal when he said, “If the President does it, by definition, it’’s not illegal.” History never repeats itself, folks. It only rhymes. At least Nixon had enough class to wait for another President to pardon him for his crimes against our country. Bush apparently doesn”t want to take that chance. He has to consider the risk that A AMERICAN will become our next President.
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DAVID A BELANGER,U.S.ARMY VET,for-america@hotmail.com,978-618-3105
A battle of wits between Rory Reid and David Axlerod is virtually criminal. Axlerod would be fighting an unarmed man. Did Reid even stop to think that he would now be in a position of working to limit turnout in the caucus? Lucky for him that Libertarians are so plentiful in Nevada, because he seems determined to shoot his future in the Democratic Party in the foot. Honestly, Rory! You can’t even get Democratic congressman elected in Las Vegas. You were seduced by the Clintons when you should have been focused on the congressional race. Did you forget that redistricting is right around the corner? Focus, Brotha! Focus!