Nevada Tea Leaves
I worked in Las Vegas as a reporter for the Review-Journal newspaper from 1986 to 1988 and appreciate the disdain all Nevadans have for cheap gambling metaphors glibly deployed by national reporters when discussing ANY Nevada-based story.
Tempting though it may be, I will avoid the corny gambling cliches as I describe the feeling on the ground here just about two hours before the Democratic caucuses begin.
First, there is some degree of unease in the Barack Obama camp about today’s result.
Second, I detect no preemptive triumphalism in the Clinton camp.
Third, the unions here are at daggers drawn and things could get a bit hostile at caucus sites on and off the Las Vegas Strip before the day is done.
Fourth, the Latino vote looms largest as the subset of voters most likely to determine the outcome. Public polls and internal polls in both campaigns show that vote splitting at least 65-35 for Clinton over Obama. The size of this turnout could spell the difference between victory and defeat.
Fifth, the Culinary Workers Union local 226 is, as expected, pulling out all the stops to help Obama win. But there is rising concern that two factors may limit Culinary’s clout in this hard-fought contest:
A. The endorsement may have come too late to translate the union’s organizing power into massive pro-Obama turnout (remember this fact: it’s much easier for a union to unify and mobilize its members on behalf of a fight for wages and benefits than it is on behalf of a political candidate their membership has little or no intrinsic commitment to). A key question looming over today’s caucuses is whether the Culinary endorsement was so close to the caucuses - just 10 days out — that there wasn’t time to fully mobilize union members on Obama’s behalf.
B. The lawsuit filed against the at-large precincts in nine casinos may have had two salutary affects on the Clinton campaign: the first, creating enough confusion about the process to render Culinary’s aggressive last-minute organizing less effective; and second, deepening pro-Clinton sentiment among Culinary members who disagreed with leadership’ s Obama endorsement. Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton just swept through the MGM casino and received a very warm reception among rank-and-file casino workers who eagerly grabbed leaflets Bill and Chelsea handed out explaining casino workers can caucus for any candidate — not just Obama.
Sixth, Rory Reid, son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and leader of Hillary’s Nevada effort, has never wavered in his belief Nevada was winnable for Clinton. Right not, he appears as calmly confident as anyone in the Clinton camp. To his credit, Rory was calm even in the panic that set in when team Clinton feared it might lose New Hampshire and debated whether to fight hard for Nevada. Reid assured senior Clinton advisers Hillary could win no matter what happened in New Hampshire. Victory is by no means assured for Clinton here, but Rory may have been the one to keep his emotions in check the best and that, in the end, may prove very beneficial to Clinton.
Tags: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Chelsea Cinton, Culinary workers union, Hillary Clinton
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VOTE - HILLARY CLINTON - America’s True Presidential Leader! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
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AMERICA NEEDS - HILLARY CLINTON - PRESIDENT! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
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YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!
YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!
YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!
YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!
YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!
YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!
You seem to be justifying Clintons win in NV. She has been the incumbent and literally took the state for granted. Obama was 25% down in Nevada upto the day he won Iowa. To be running competitively in NV underscores the strength of his candidacy. His movement is making tectonic changes in the political landscape of America, taking on the Clinton machine oiled by the DNC.
Nevada has given Latino’s a chance to evaluate Obama at close range. When he makes his case to them, they will vote for him based on the content of his character and strength of his policies. This is what Obama’s campaign has achieved. Whatever the outcome, Obama will win NV come November.
MCCAIN AND HUCKABEE ALONG WITH MIT AND EDWARD’S AND HILLARY AND OBAMA TOO
CALL FOR THE COUNTRY TO BE BOOSTED WITH FEDERAL TAX RELIEF, AND THEN WHAT?
THE MELTDOWN ON WALL STREET AND IN THE HOUSING MARKET, AND THE REST OF THE STOCK MARKET? EVERY TIME GREENSPAN OR ANOTHER OF THE MOUTHPIECE PUNDIT’S,
MAKE A STATEMENT?
Don’t BUY this? Well neither do I. I think THIS ALONG WITH, the G. Soros campain for the TRUTH out there? Is more of the same kind of manipulation we got at the turn of the last century!
YOU CAN FOOL! :
Some of the People All of the Time!
And, All of the People Some of the Time!
Armand Hammer, of the Baking Soda name, funded and supported the 1918 Bolsheviks Revolution in Russia.
Along with the Heinz, Family and don’t, forget the DeBeers and de Boars in South Africa
Either! All, Espousing! , Their Brand of Save the World from Every-one but their? Point of View!
World history is always revisionist, from the 20/20 hind sight perspective, WITH BLINDER’S on!
THE REAL TRUTH IS FROM OUR PERSONAL FAMILY’S AND THE HISTORY,
TRUE STORYS OF THE HORROR AND PAIN STARTED WITH THIS TYPE OF,
MANIPULATION OF THE CORPORATE ENTITIES, AND CARRIED THROUGH,
TO DISASTER! IN THE 20TH CENTURY!
It Can, be found with a little research and you can even find some FUN facts and Figures!
But Let’s, not deceive ourselves or try to deceive Other’s with Doctored facts and Statistic’s!
As the G. Soros, and Co. along with the ONE WORLD-Gore-DUH1, inventor of the Internet!
OR, Micheal’s, Moor-on and MOVE ON M8! I think that, is Short and, To, TOO! THE POINT!
Even If it is (A, SOR-OASS!) ONE!
So Sorry Mr. BLoomberg-? , Don’t Take the average VOTER out HERE for and IDIOT!
We all know how there are Alternatives to Everything, that Followed, from Mr. Armand’s,
Hammer Turned out! I Don’t think we want that Course to continue for this country,
And that Goes for the Rest of the Back to Basic’s, DEMOCRATIC?, ACLU SOCIALIST FUNDED,
and Pounded in again and again, ADD-NAUSEUM! PROGRAM”S, TOO!
FOR A : Straight Talk and Straight shooter, for My Voice and VOTE, for the Country is:
FRED THOMPSON!
The Green Mountain Boy’s, From: THE LOST STATE OF FRANKLIN!
SUPPORT YOU! AND OUR TROOPS!…………………RUN THE RACE!
GET THE CORPORATE LOBYIST AND THE ONE WORLD SORRY SOROS
MOVEMENT AND THE CARPETBAGGERS OUT OF OFFICE AND WASHINGTON!
GO!, FRED!…………………………………………………………………..GO!
If your such a great reporter Major Garrett then why have you not talked about Obama’s Muslim heritage? http://www.islamichope.org
You have no problem constantly bashing Hillary and then you turn around and support someone who could do great destruction to our country. Move to Iran if you love the Muslim’s sooooo much!!
Barack Obama is a stand up guy who is fighting for his party’s nomination with Hillary Clinton and her husband who will say anything at anytime to anyone if they think it will help get them votes at the time, because they figure they can always change perceptions later by saying that’s not what I said, that’s not what I meant etc.
The Clinton’s have charged that Barack Obama’s position on the Iraq war is a “Fairy tale” or is “inconsistent” which as usual is only “Clinton politics.”
Senator Barack Obama, then an Illinois state senator, delivered these remarks October 2, 2002 at the Federal Plaza in Chicago:
“I stand before you as someone who is not opposed to war in all circumstances. The Civil War was one of the bloodiest in history, and yet it was only through the crucible of the sword, the sacrifice of multitudes, that we could begin to perfect this union and drive the scourge of slavery from our soil.
I Don’t Oppose All Wars
I don’t oppose all wars. My grandfather signed up for a war the day after Pearl Harbor was bombed, fought in Patton’s army.He fought in the name of a larger freedom, part of that arsenal of democracy that triumphed over evil.I don’t oppose all wars.After September 11, after witnessing the carnage and destruction, the dust and the tears, I supported this administration’s pledge to hunt down and root out those who would slaughter innocents in the name of intolerance, and I would willingly take up arms myself to prevent such tragedy from happening again.
Opposed to Dumb, Rash Wars
I don’t oppose all wars. What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne.What I am opposed to is the attempt by political hacks like Karl Rove to distract us from a rise in the uninsured, a rise in the poverty rate, a drop in the median income, to distract us from corporate scandals and a stock market that has just gone through the worst month since the Great Depression.That’s what I’m opposed to. A dumb war. A rash war. A war based not on reason but on passion, not on principle but on politics.
On Saddam Hussein
Now let me be clear: I suffer no illusions about Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal man. A ruthless man. A man who butchers his own people to secure his own power…. The world, and the Iraqi people, would be better off without him.But I also know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States, or to his neighbors…and that in concert with the international community he can be contained until, in the way of all petty dictators, he falls away into the dustbin of history.I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences.I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.I am not opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars. So for those of us who seek a more just and secure world for our children, let us send a clear message to the president.
You Want a Fight, President Bush? You want a fight, President Bush?
Let’s finish the fight with Bin Laden and al-Qaeda, through effective, coordinated intelligence, and a shutting down of the financial networks that support terrorism, and a homeland security program that involves more than color-coded warnings.You want a fight, President Bush? Let’s fight to make sure that…we vigorously enforce a nonproliferation treaty, and that former enemies and current allies like Russia safeguard and ultimately eliminate their stores of nuclear material, and that nations like Pakistan and India never use the terrible weapons already in their possession, and that the arms merchants in our own country stop feeding the countless wars that rage across the globe.You want a fight, President Bush? Let’s fight to make sure our so-called allies in the Middle East, the Saudis and the Egyptians, stop oppressing their own people, and suppressing dissent, and tolerating corruption and inequality, and mismanaging their economies so that their youth grow up without education, without prospects, without hope, the ready recruits of terrorist cells.You want a fight, President Bush? Let’s fight to wean ourselves off Middle East oil through an energy policy that doesn’t simply serve the interests of Exxon and Mobil.Those are the battles that we need to fight. Those are the battles that we willingly join. The battles against ignorance and intolerance. Corruption and greed. Poverty and despair.”
Barack Obama delivered this powerful speech at the Federal Plaza in Chicago October 2, 2002 against the US beginning war in Iraq while later that same month Hillary Clinton voted for the authorization to begin US military action in Iraq. Once US troops were actually in Iraq and fighting a war, of course, it would be irresponsible for Obama to be against funding the troops. The key is that Barack Obama had the judgment to see the dumbness of the war in October 2002 and clearly said so. Hillary Clinton did not. Bill and Hillary Clinton’s tactic of trying to paint Obama’s war position as “a fairy tale” or as “inconsistent” clearly demonstrates why America badly needs the enormous breath of fresh air Barack Obama provides. At one time Senator Kerry from Nebraska referred to the Clinton’s as “clever liars” several years before President Bill Clinton told America: “I did not have sex with that woman!” Goodbye Bill and Hillary Clinton. Hello Barack Obama
Nevada tea leaves is a great article and just the thing needed on the morning of the Nevada Caucus.
Mr. Garrett broke the event down very well and did a good job describing what is happening in Nevada today.
It will be instructive to learn if either of the candidates were able to connect with the Nevada voters and whether this connection will affect the primary and general campaign in the West.
I hope to see a good deal more of Mr. Garrett’s work in describing political events in Nevada and how they carry over to Colorado, New Mexica and Arizona as these states will be the battleground of the 08 campaign.
I passed several polling places on my way to work this morning. If this morning’s crowd is an indicator of the turn-out for Super Tuesday then today will be huge! Here in the Bible and Black belt of America the polls are packed. I believe this level of turn-out like none I have seen before is in Obama’s favor.
Seems pretty interesting, looks like Obama’s got his work cut out for himself.
While I’m here, I was also looking at the weekly democratic nominee polls, and it’s almost amazing how Barack Obama came from a 28% deficit to taking the lead over Hilary Clinton just weeks before the democratic caucus.
What do you think of that?
Tell me more at ObamaChoice.com
PELOSI, DEAN, REID, KENNEDY AND KERRY HAVE DESTROYED THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. WE HAVE 50 STATES — NOT 48. I REALIZE PELOSI WANTS TO BE THE FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT BUT SHE SHOULD NOT DESTROY THE PARTY IN THE PROCESS!
Obama has had plenty of opportunities, during this race, AND during the past 20 years, to do what he did on April 29, but Rev. Wright had never put Obama down before. That made him willing to turn against the pastor, who — a few weeks ago Obama said that he could never turn from. Obama will say anything to get what he wants.
Because he has now disrespected Obama, Obama is now willing to confront Wright’s horrible remarks — one by one. HE SHOULD HAVE DONE THIS AT LEAST A YEAR AGO! TOO LITTLE — TOO LATE.
Obama listened to and approved of Wright for 20 years. It’s impossible to believe that he never heard Wright’s radical rants. Obama is not that stupid. This is the very philosophy of the church that he has attended for years. If he has that much “blindness” on something as important as foundational philosophical beliefs of his own church, why would he think he could deal with crafty foreign leaders and run our country?
If you listen to Michelle Obama, it certainly sounds like she has heard and believed the teachings against America, that have been preached by her pastor. Don’t forget Obama’s ties to Ayers, Rezko, Farrakhan, Malcolm X, the Black Panthers, and many other anti-Americans and terrorists.
May God help us to have the grace and love to do what s right for our country — no matter what our skin color. Race is a factor — we are all members of the Human Race!
Hillary or McCain!