The Bourbon Room caught up with Rory Reid, son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and head of Hillary Clinton’s Nevada campaign, and senior Obama adviser David Axelrod to discuss Saturday’s Nevada caucuses.

Reid: “Anyone who tells you knows what turnout is going to be is lying because nobody knows. We believe Democrats are energized and this is an exciting process for Nevada Democrats, but we just don’t know how that is going to translate on caucus day. Hillary Clinton has a strong identity in Nevada and has attracted a lot of support because of her work on Yucca Mountain (the nuclear waste repository the vast majority of Nevadans don’t want) and her push for an economic stimulus bill that will help southern Nevadans deal with the mortgage crisis. We feel very good about where we are in this campaign.”

Axelrod: “I’ve always felt that we were fighting from behind here because she has most of the establishment with her. We’re the challengers, we’re the insurgents, we’re taking on the party establishment. I’ve heard (turnout) estimates from 25,000 to 100,000 so it’s almost impossible to predict. There’s no voter history here. But I do believe she has structural advantages here that are formidable and we will have to overcome them.”

Handicapping Saturday’s Nevada caucuses would be difficult under the best circumstances. Considering the turbulence of the fight for the Democratic nomination so far, predictions about Nevada are riskier than any wager in a state famous for them.

The biggest variable here is turnout. No one knows what it will be. In 2004 energized Democratic turnout was 9,000 for caucuses that everyone knew would have no affect on the race because John Kerry was clearly en route to the nomination.

A long time ago, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, one of the biggest players in Nevada capturing its coveted third-in-line status among early caucus and primary states, said turnout could be as high as 100,000. Talk about betting the farm. There are about 412,000 registered Democrats here and a 100,000 turnout would constitute caucus attendance of roughly 25 percent of registered Democrats.

I am not aware of a precedent anywhere in American history of a state achieving turnout that high in its first competitive presidential caucus. Most Nevada pros are assuming caucus attendance will follow the Iowa model, in which about 10 percent of registered Democrats participated when Iowa’s nominating caucuses first became competitive and nationally meaningful.

Considering the energy and excitement this race has generated among Democrats, it wouldn’t be illogical to assume turnout could be as high as 15 percent of registered Democrats. If you accept the 10 percent to 15 percent turnout model, you would then expect between 41,000 and 62,000 Democrats to participate. But there are other factors that could keep turnout down, among the distractions embedded in a three-day Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend; confusion about where to caucus, and the simple lack of a caucus culture that motivates people to take an hour out of their Saturday morning to attend.

All this makes campaigns uneasy because the only thing more nerve-wracking than bad polls numbers is poll numbers you can’t trust because you can’t confidently create a reliable turnout model. That’s where the Clinton and Obama camps find themselves now.

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Before The Bourbon Room heads to the spin room, final impressions.The debate was a stand-pat affair. Unlike the New Hampshire debate, Clinton did not come in with a game plan to change the dynamic by driving issue differences with Obama. All three held close to well-articulated policy positions and made little or no attempt to draw blood or beat one another up. Clinton and Obama had strong moments, as already discussed. In the end, the debate was about holding ground already won in Nevada and if any candidate gained here it was probably Clinton because she more artfully and regularly brought Nevada themes and Nevada issues into the mix. Her level of confidence here was striking and smooth for a candidate who in the past made references to personal stories sound like something she was reading off an index card — tonight it sounded less formulaic and that, probably, made her tonight’s slight winner.  

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Race question right out of the blocks. Hillary says she and Barack Obama called the truce. Obama called for it on camera, Hillary followed with a statement — not exactly the same thing and important since Hillary’s camp often accurately points out Obama follows Hillary’s lead on some issues — health care and economic stimulus to name just two.Obama tries to rise above the race issue and get back to the terrain that has been safest for him all along — that of transcending race and seeking to build a bigger coalition. Edwards weighs in tangentially on the side of Obama by highlighting role of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.  and those who conducted lunch counter sit-ins, not the legislative dexterity and power of former President Lyndon Johnson.On Tim Russert’s question of his campaign’s involvement in pushing the race story by highlighting comments from Clinton surrogates that had a racial component, Obama appeared to concede the point that his camp bore some responsibility and pledged to set a non-racial tone going forward. Obama also rejected the theory that in New Hampshire the difference between the polls and the final result had something to do with whites lying to pollsters about supporting Obama but voting for Clinton in private.  Obama’s comfort level can be described as minimally comfortable. He tried mightly, again, to steer it back to the change dynamic.Russert’s question to Clinton about Robert Johnson’s reference to what Obama was “doing in the neighborhood” that he wouldn’t described, Clinton said his comments were out of bounds but said in the campaign it mattered less what someone “none of us have ever heard of” said, but what the candidates themselves say. Johnson, one of the most successful media moguls (white or black) in American history, might be surprised to hear Clinton refer to him in that way. Johnson’s comments were widely interpreted as a reference to Obama’s admitted drug use (marijuana and cocaine) as a teen. Johnson later said he was referring to Obama’s work as a community organizer, an explanation neither the Obama camp nor many black talk radio hosts accepted.

Two-term Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, the first woman to ever lead the National Governors’ Association, will endorse Barack Obama’s presidential campaign later today, The Bourbon Room has learned.

Napolitano has scheduled a televised press conference in Arizona for later today and will follow up with a telephone conference call organized by Obama’s campaign.

The endorsement gives Obama a nice boost in Nevada, where Napolitano is highly regarded among party regulars and has a higher visibility than most neighboring governors among those with a passing interest in politics — i.e., likely caucus attendees on Jan. 19.

Napolitano was named by Time magazine recently as one of the nation’s top five governors and was the first governor to deploy National Guard forces to the border to stem the flow of illegal immigration.

Napolitano also pushed for and won the creation of voluntary all-day kindergarten. She also raised teacher salaries and boosted health insurance coverage for children. While not identical, these innovations resemble concepts Obama has stressed on the campaign trail.

Obama is looking to convey to party insiders that the New Hampshire primary setback wasn’t devastating and that he’s still in the ballgame. The string of Obama endorsements since leaving New Hampshire has been impressive from a party-insider perspective: Culinary Union 226 in Las Vegas, Nevada Service Employee International Union, Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Rep. George Miller of California and, now, Napolitano.

Do these endorsement moves votes? Culinary and SEIU in Nevada will make an enormous difference in the Jan. 19 caucuses — probably the decisive difference. Kerry brings an e-mail list of donors and cachet among rank-and-file Democrats who may still have doubts about Obama’s readiness for the Oval Office. With Miller in northern California, Obama gets a congressman with something few others have — a real political organization that can deliver votes. Miller’s also House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s top lieutenant and that association, even if arms length, helps Obama among party regulars.

 
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Maggie Williams, former chief of staff to then-First Lady Hillary Clinton, has agreed to join Hillary’s presidential campaign as an unpaid day-to-day adviser, as will famous Democratic ad man Roy Spence, an on-again-off-again Hillary adviser for months.

The decision to bring Williams and Spence into Hillary’s tight inner circle was driven by former President Clinton and other voices in the Hillary campaign clamoring for a shakeup to reverse her defeat in Iowa and an expected defeat tonight in New Hampshire.

Others are likely to join Hillary’s campaign on a volunteer basis and team Hillary is putting the full-court press, if you will, on Bill Clinton’s former White House political director Doug Sosnick, who now works for the NBA. 

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Hillary Clinton’s campaign is due for a significant shake-up after an expected defeat in New Hampshire in Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary.Senior Clinton sources told FOX News that no one will be fired who has been part of Clinton’s effort to date, but numerous advisers from Bill Clinton’s White House and presidential campaigns will take on voluntary advisory roles likely to overshadow the input of Hillary’s current team.

By Major Garrett

Paul Begala sent the following e-mail to The Bourbon Room moments ago.

Major:

I know you’re swamped and I hate to bother you on such a busy news day, but whoever told you I am joining Hillary’s campaign fed you some bum info. It’s just not true. Or as I say to my boys, N.H.D. Not. Happening. Dude.

I am not coming in as a volunteer, or as an adviser or as a strategist or anything else. I have contributed to her campaign, and am convinced she would be a great President. But I am not joining the campaign in any form or fashion.

Thanks a lot.

All best,

Paul Begala

The sourcing on the story is impeccable and its been confirmed through other, external sources very close to the Clinton campaign. The story has always said this is a matter that has to be finalized in a shake-down meeting tomorrow after what is expected to be a bruising Clinton loss here in New Hampshire.

The final decision is due tomorrow but the current intention, as The Bourbon Room first reported, is to bring Begala and Clinton on board as day-to-day strategists on a volunteer basis.

One of the realities of political coverage, is denials fly until the press release is out. There’s no press release on this. It is in development and that’s always the way The Bourbon Room has reported it.

The topic of bringing Carville and Begala on board was first raised in a Clinton conference call yesterday, a call in which two very credible sources tell me Begala and Carville participated.

Other big names from Bill’s era of politics are also under consideration, including Doug Sosnick and former Clinton pollster Stan Greenberg. Everything in a campaign is fluid, especially in one where so much has gone so wrong so quickly.

More to come