The Fullness of Spring
“Tonight, in the fullness of spring, with the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States.”
– Barack Obama, May 20, 2008, Des Moines, Iowa
As the Obama plane lands in Florida and the Sunshine State regards the Illinois senator for the first time in eight months as a candidate and likely Democratic nominee, a few observations on the Iowa victory party.
Iowa tells the tale of this nomination battle in three ways.
First, it explains what Obama won there and what Hillary Clinton lost. Most tangibly and tragically for Clinton, she lost an investment of between $20 million and $25 million in pursuit of a victory that turned into a near-game-ending third place finish. On the day Clinton won big in Kentucky and her campaign reported raising $22 million in April (a fulsome amount for an effort hamstrung by weeks of dour or dismissive press coverage), the fine print revealed the wreckage Iowa wrought so long ago.
Clinton’s now nearly $31 million dollars in debt. If you subtract the $11 million in Clinton loans, the costly Iowa misadventure appears the central cause of the debt crisis. A $20 million to $25 million investment in an Iowa victory would have reaped enormous dividends and ended this campaign far earlier with Clinton as the nominee. Her loss not only blew a hole in her finances, leaving her far less capable of sustaining a wire-to-wire contest the likes of which Obama always knew he would have to wage to win.
Clinton’s Iowa loss inflicted other costs in prestige, confidence, morale and purpose. It took a strong candidate with gumption and true leadership skills to rally the troops after Iowa and withstand the post-Iowa body blow of 12 consecutive defeats (a by-product of a strategy that bet heavily on Iowa and assumed deal-sealing victories on Super Tuesday).
In the fullness of time, Clinton emerged as just such a leader and much of America (save ardent Obama followers) came to see her, albeit too late, as more compassionate, human and likable than the lacquered figure of imperial entitlement they saw when the campaign began.
The second part of the Iowa story is what it taught Obama, his campaign, and most important of all, those who have come to support him. Iowa was an abstraction at first. As Obama said Tuesday night, expectations were low but possibilities were high. The candidate had to ignite a movement, his staff had to attract worker bees to sustain it and voters had to see within it a promise more powerful than the unexcitable (Clinton) or preferred (John Edwards began Iowa the race solidly ahead). All three things happened and important lessons were learned:
– Grassroots organizing at the community level can change minds and deliver votes.
– Technology can simplify fund-raising and minimize day-to-day costs allowing young staff to make decisions and get instant feedback from higher-ups as both ends adjusted to circumstances on the ground.
– The campaign could unleash the directed energy of young voters to do more than pass around e-mails and hunt for hook-ups. Top Obama advisers had no tolerance for merely “attracting” the young. They demanded work, lots of glamorless trench work and found, as they suspected, the slacker generation was more myth than reality.
– The campaign also saw its gauzy belief in “new politics” vindicated. Obama rose without resorting to the hour-by-hour attacks and counter-attacks familiar in most early presidential campaigns. His cool demeanor and confidence created a sort of contagion among his followers that, indeed, something was happening here.
This had a near-paralyzing effect on Clinton and Edwards as they both ruled against direct and negative attacks on Obama, fearing a backlash. Instead, Clinton changed the slogans and optics of her campaign almost weekly down the stretch and Edwards hardened his attacks and so narrowed his populist message he had no room to increase the size of his following to match Obama’s.
That brings us to the third thing Iowa did for Obama. It proved he could remake the mathematics of politics by expanding the known universe. It’s easy to forget now, but Iowa’s caucuses night turnout shattered every record and left veterans of the process as dumb-founded as if they had seen Martians buying Slurpees and Slim Jims at the Kwik-Stop.
By Clinton’s own caucus projected turnout models, she would have won with the people she moved on caucuses night. But she finished a catastrophic third. She hit her mark dead-on and failed miserably. Edwards exceeded his turnout projection substantially and still lost by 8 points.
Obama’s Iowa win set in motion a turnout phenomenon that has continued throughout this race and now gives his campaign something bordering on supreme confidence it can win in November.
Obama’s camp believes it understands the the reservoir of untapped voter enthusiasm better than anyone. They believe it because they explored it first, found its depth, navigated its turbulent parts and charted a course as a genuine new explorer often does. This will strike some as arrogance. But politics makes no room for misguided arrogance. In fact it crushes it.
Politics rewards seeing things differently, finding ways to turn that vision into a practical vote-by-vote, block-by-block, county-by-county, state-by-state constituency. If you don’t believe me, ask Karl Rove.
Obama learned how to do something fundamentally different in Iowa by literally remaking the caucus map. It is why he believes he can remake the electoral college map. Iowa is not America, but in this race it gave America a compelling look at an unknown candidate with a new approach and a tenacious desire to make it work.
That it did in Iowa is a debt Obama owes to that state and it owes to Obama. And that is what brought the two back together in the fullness of spring.
Thank you Iowa for your wisdom, your courage, and your foresight. At first I was skeptical, but you were correct from the very beginning. You may have saved our country. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Histroy will reflect kindly upon the state of Iowa and it’s progressive thinking.
[...] Click here to read Major Garrett’s analysis of Obama’s ascent to the top of the Democrat… [...]
Excellen article except for one thing, HRC did not emerge from the Iowa loss as a leader more compassionate, human and likable, instead, she showed her truer color of being a pathological liar, frequently changing her character to fit the crowd she is trying to get votes from. She has lost all respect from any clear thinking person.
[...] Florida or Bust for Hillary Posted on May 21st, 2008 by foxnewsonline@foxnews.com Clinton wins by wide margin in Kentucky, vows to continue nomination fight as Obama claims a majority of pledged Democratic delegates with Oregon victory• DELEGATE COUNT | VIDEO: CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIR• WATCH LIVE: Obama in Florida | Clinton in Boca Raton• BOURBON ROOM BLOG: The Fullness of Spring [...]
Very nice article, Mr. Garrett – you present your ideas thoughtfully and articulately. I enjoyed reading your perspective of the long campaign season. Congratulations on a well-written piece.
Hi Major,
This article reveals a brilliant, analytical mind. Thank you!
Burton
Obama reminds me of a college student. Let’s give everything to everyone and we’ll just let everyone else pay for it. I was there and thought that also, until I grew older and wiser and had children of my own.
We are not a perfect nation but we are still the best nation to live in.
This nation is constantly changing but will Obama’s change be good? I read once that if Someone can make change for a dollar, but they only give back $.75 was that change worth it?
Obama’s change is at too great of an expense to this nation.
[...] Ill. senator is close to nomination• DELEGATE COUNT | VIDEO: CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIR• BOURBON ROOM BLOG: The Fullness of Spring (No Ratings Yet) Loading [...]
[...] Obama Runs Out the Clock Posted on May 21st, 2008 by foxnewsonline@foxnews.com Having claimed majority of pledged delegates in Dem contest, Obama camp says Ill. senator is close to nomination• DELEGATE COUNT | VIDEO: CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIR• BOURBON ROOM BLOG: The Fullness of Spring [...]
I always enjoy Major’s blog posts… I’m a republican conservative, but I have to admit Obama’s campaign has tapped into something that even Karl Rove was not able to fully understand. I am voting for McCain, but the Obama movement is definitely captivating even to this Republican.
Besides the way Major writes about it, any politically interested individual cannot help but admire the Obama Campaigns work ethic at least.
Garrett, You have neglected to give the real reason Obama has been given the messiah nod from the Dem Party. The Dem big wigs have been leaning farther and farther to the left and they know that Obama is the nominee who is the farthest to the left. They MUST know that Obama cannot get elected but they still want him to be the nominee. No matter what it takes- even denying half the Dem members their say- even denying 2 states their vote. Even denying “free speech” to anyone that speaks out against their annointed one. Dean, Pelosi, Kennedy, Carter, Richardson and the rest MUST KNOW that Obama CANNOT get elected but they’ll nominate him anyway- thinking that the American people are so fed up with Bush, they’ll vote for anyone. But the American people will not vote for Obama. Our second choice after Hillary is McCain.
The Dems have not considered William Congreve’s words to the wise… “He– hath no fury like a woman scorned.” Hillary is not the woman scorned, WE are the women scorned. We will work our hearts out… FOR MCCAIN.
O Reilly, Tell, Pastor Huckabee, I am ashamed of him, to choose his jokes in future. He should be made to write a statement with F.I.B. Is there a plan……………..we the electorate does not know.
about eliminating…………..Sen. Obama. I had a lot of respect for Pastor,Hukabee………….but now, he belongs to those people with uncultured tongues, having been a pastor, he should know better.
Ref. the book of James……………………
Mary Ann Simon
“The Jews deserved it and Hit1er was God sent”
What an awesome commentary.
MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING FROM INFORMED DEMOCRATS TO DNC
To: DNC Members
From: Informed Democrats
Re: Understanding of Florida Primary Rule Violations
Date: Until Michigan and Florida are Seated
Dear Governor Dean & Esteemed DNC Members,
STATEMENT OF UNDERSTANDING: As an informed Democrat, I am seeking to understand when will, we, Democratic voters see true equity in the Democratic Presidential Primary race?
RULES OF UNDERSTANDING: According to the rules of the Florida Democratic Presidential Primary, agreed to by all Democratic Presidential Primary candidates, no Democratic candidate was to advertise in Florida prior to the Florida primary.
FACTS OF UNDERSTANDING: Senator Barack Obama purchased national cable advertising and advertised HEAVILY in the State of Florida prior to the January presidential primary.
REQUEST OF OUTCOME BASED ON UNDERSTANDING: When will Senator Barack Obama and his campaign receive written (and publicized) notification he is; therefore, disqualified from receiving ANY of the delegates he and his campaign are seeking when Florida is ultimately seated, based on he and his campaign’s failure to follow DNC rules?
EQUITY IN UNDERSTANDING: As a lifelong, Informed Democrat I know and understand you and the esteemed members of the DNC will do everything in your power to make an equitable decision in this matter, with liberty and justice for all.
THANK YOU FOR UNDERSTANDING INFORMED DEMOCRATS REQUEST: Thank you in advance for the time and attention you and the esteemed members of the DNC have and will give to this matter, because we know you and the members, hold that all men and women are related equal in DNC decision-making. Right?
THE ONLY UNDERSTANDABLE OUTCOME: Seat Michigan and Florida, as they are currently counted, and award the only Democratic candidate who can win in November the nomination-Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Why embarrass the Democratic Party any further by awarding the nomination to the media created Manchurian Candidate Obama and wait for the Republicans and the 529 to unload to the world Obama’s unelectable dirty laundry: Antoin Rezko, William Ayers, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, Iraqi born Aiham Alsammarae, the former electricity minister convicted of corruption in Iraq and his deal with Obama and Rezko to build nuclear power plants in Iraq-a nation we are currently at war?
Democratically Yours,
Informed Democrat