Inoculation or Wasted Time — Schoen and Winston Debate
Barack Obama has wrapped up the most important parts of his values week. He delivered a speech on patriotism Monday in Independence, Mo., a speech on faith on Tuesday in Zanesville, Ohio, and speech on national service on Wednesday in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
On Wednesday The Bourbon Room interviewed two pollsters on whether this week worked or failed.
One was Doug Schoen, a prominent Democratic pollster who worked for former President Bill Clinton after Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994. Schoen is credited with helping Clinton regain his political footing and win a second term in 1996. Schoen worked under Dick Morris, the top Clinton strategist in those “comeback” years.
The other pollster was David Winston. Winston was top pollster for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich from 1997 to 1998 and has polled for top Republicans in Congress in recent years. The Bourbon Room would like to thank Fox’s Allyson Walker for transcribing the full taped interviews that produced the quotes you see below.
Here’s Schoen’s take on Obama’s week so far:
“I think it’s a wise strategic move. I think it is critically important to the campaign and I think by moving to the right on values-related issues: national service, faith-based initiatives, patriotism he’s rebutting one of the central negatives he has. The fact that John McCain is letting him do this is a major strategic blunder on McCain’s part.”
Schoen said the week will go along way as the campaign progresses to minimize memories of Obama’s relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Fr. Michael Pflager and others who have — at least in the minds of some — undermined or obliterated Obama’s image as a post-racial, post-partisan politician.
“I think it is eradicating the memory of those people who Barack Obama recognizes, quite rightly, have no place in the dialog,” Schoen said. “He wants to reengage and the fact that John McCain has apparently allowed this process to go forward without challenge is a huge benefit to the Obama candidacy. I think he’s going to be significantly advantaged by these initiatives in a way that, arguably, before this week there were major questions about his patriotism, about his commitment to faith-based initiatives, about his values. He ’s addressed them pretty successfully.”
While it might sound off-putting to some Obama supporters, Schoen said the values week looked to him very much like the strategy of “triangulation” the Clinton White House adopted to deal with the Republican majority in Congress.
“It strikes me as exactly what we did with bill Clinton successfully in 1996 and I think Barack Obama is moving to the center successfully in a way that will obviously be to his benefit. This is building for the future. This is what we call ‘inoculation.’ And by inoculation I mean he is able to cover his flank and say ‘of course I’ve made it clear I’m a patriot, of course I support traditional American values.”
Lastly Schoen said this strategy isn’t about moving poll numbers now but protecting Obama against a drop in poll numbers later if attacks on his character surface later.
“He doesn’t need a bump, he needs a bumper and by all accounts, he’s getting a pretty strong reinforcement in the last three days.”
Winston, as you might imagine, has a completely different take.
“Barack Obama’s got one big structural problem as he looks toward this election. That is he’s basically a far left candidate in a center-right country. What he’s now trying to do is what every typical politician does after winning their nomination and that is to move to the center. The problem that he has here, however, is that he is supposed to be an atypical politician and so doing a typical political move may sort of conflict with a lot of principles he’s trying to protect.”
Winston calls the week on values a mistake because it’s too late to reshape Obama’s image.
“People know who this person is so if suddenly you’re going to come in with a whole slough of different positions than what’s clearly been held before that creates conflict for a lot of people. That’s where I think they’re making a significant error. This is not reintroducing him or trying to shape who he is. People know who he is. And the question is ‘What’s he going to do?’ And that’s the question he’s not answering. I think it’s overtly naive. How do you re-define someone who’s 100 percent known? I think they’re making a fundamental error. The biggest problem that he has at this point is “what are you gonna do?” What are your policies that you’re trying to implement? I think what they need to do is he needs to develop his economic policy. It’s the number-one issue in the country. it’s what people are focused on, gas prices are driving, a lot of people’s perceptions of what’s going on with the economy.”
So there you have it, two veterans of 1990s era politics who see something very familiar in Obama’s general election strategy. Schoen, who did not for Hillary Clinton’s campaign, and Winston, who is not working for John McCain’s campaign, see the week very differently. Winston’s delighted Obama hasn’t used a week with McCain out of the country to pound him on the ‘Bush economy.” Schoen thinks there’s plenty of time for that and Obama needed to shore up some weaknesses first.
Let the debate over these tactics begin.
Obama was so hyped up in the primaries that nobody seemed to be worried about what his policies actually were (he wasnt really saying much, just a load of yes we can, change etc.). His inexperience is now showing. he flipped on Iran (even Hillary saying his policy on Iran was very naive), he flipped on Israel, he’s flipped on when the troops are coming home.
I dont beleive in this new politics either. he’s the same as any politician and i dont think he can do a better job then John McCain. The economy is now in a bear market and what you dont need now is raised taxes. we need people to be spending as much in the economy to keep businesses alive.
Senator Obama’s Patriotism – What it means to this Navy Veteran. I hope you consider the following article: Senator Obama’s Patriotism – a Veteran’s Perspective
It is found at:
http://zachjonesishome.wordpress.com/senator-obama%e2%80%99s-patriotism-a-veteran%e2%80%99s-perspective/
That is what Obama is good at – delivering prewriten speeches. Obama will not tell you what he will do as pres. to create jibs and get America energy independent, Obama will not agree to debates or town meetings but he will flood the TV and news in his effort to recreate his image to the voters and to recreate Michele as the perfect fisrt lady. I can’t believe the republicans are letting this slide by. I don’t know who is running McCain campaign but they need to wake up and take on Obama.
And we America need to wake up an take a closer look at what Obama would mean for this country if we put him in the WH.
You really can’t remake yourself at Obama’s age. You can change somewhat but in his case his far left secular progressive liberal core values will alway win out in the end. He should embrace his true beliefs and stop trying to mislead the people. It did not work for Gore or Kerry.
On Patriotism, Obama patriotism is to Africa as in his belief in Black Lib. Theology so states. On Faith, Obama states there are many ways to God and Obama states he is a Christian. Christianity is the belief there is only ONE way to God and that’s through JESUS CHRIST. On serving your country, Obama didn’t even register for the draft in 1980. Could the DNC have picked a worst candidate?
Obama’s TV Biography Ad
His bio ad says he was raised with “values straight from the Kansas heartland,” though he never lived in Kansas,he grew up in Indonesia and Hawaii. He claims to have passed three bills, but fails to mention that two were in the Illinois state Senate and that he didn’t vote on the third in the U.S. Senate. His new ad praises welfare reform, yet he opposed the legislation when a Republican Congress passed and President Clinton signed it.
All the give-a-way programs he is promising, where is he going to get the money?
A true patriot of this country doesn’t have to try to convince anyone he’s a patriot, why is he having to try and convince the people that he is patriotic…..his associations Wright, Ayers, Rezko, Farrakhan and other anti American’s.
Community service for Jeremiah Wright is not patriotism.
How does a terrorist become a presidential candidate?
Dump Obama the terrorist!
OBama is a Fake!!!! He can deliver well prepared speeches – all for his political gain. He CHANGES his message to suit the need. WHY are we just now seeing this FRAUD??????
How could the DNC pick the WRONG, WEAK candidate – he will NEVER win the white house.
Senator Hillary Clinton is the best qualified to lead our country.
McCain is a good 2nd choice.
What has obama done for americans lately?
he has used race to win primaries
he has trashed clintons.
he has divided the dems.
he has insulted women“sweetie“
he has showed us “what arrogant means=obama“
he has told us true meanings of SNOB,ELITIST,S*XIST,RACIST,SAME OLD POLITCIAN with brand new copied speeches
he has shown us that its okay to copy speeches
he has shown us “how to flip flop effectively
he has shown us “how to make MSM his pet and keep them in his pocket `where his phone vibrates
ha has shown us “why some americans r bitter “
he has shown us what `a typical white person looks like
he has shown us his greatest racist ever priests and friends
he has shown us ——NO MORALS,NO VALUES,NO PRINCIPLES,NO CHARACTER,NO CLASS……
Obama is so full of crap….anyone who believes in him is very stupid or cannot hear the words correctly. I know that people want change but this guy is a FAKE. He needs to just disappear from the U.S. and go to some other country….Maybe Kenya…He is a big flip flopper. I would never cast my vote on this shit head…
Hope this idots of Fox news post my posting….
Obama is so full of crap….anyone who believes in him is very stupid or cannot hear the words correctly. I know that people want change but this guy is a FAKE. He needs to just disappear from the U.S. and go to some other country….Maybe Kenya…He is a big flip flopper. I would never cast my vote on this shit head…
Please don’t call Obama a terrorist. You’re just making yourself and anyone else who has doubts about him look ridiculous.
These speeches are just dumb. Like people are sitting around saying “Gee, I wasn’t going to vote for Obama but he says he’s a patriot…” I’m sure Jimmy Carter loves his country too but I don’t want him as President again.
Bottom line is Obama’s lack of significant legislative or any executive or military experience makes him unqualified for the Presidency, and even what little political experience he has raises too many red flags: Rezko, Wright, Ayers, etc.
And he says that a vote for McCain is four more years of George Bush, but last time I checked, McCain wasn’t Bush’s VP or even in his cabinet, but was instead a critic of the administration.