CHICAGO, IL  - 8:35 p.m EDT

Senior officials tell Fox the text is designed to be received when the nation is awake, meaning it won’t be sent before 10 am EDT and possibly a bit later. The running mate event is to occur at 3:10 pm EDT, so the text could arrive after 10 am EDT to ensure maximum awareness and build the TV audience for the announcement.

CHESAPEAKE, VA – 6:23 P.M.

John McCain’s campaign has produced this TV ad to counter the national cable buy for Obama’s ad, seen in earlier posts, called “Seven.

Here is the You Tube link: “Housing Problem”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjC2AlWy6CI
Also, the Politico.com says late today the property story is more complicated than it first appeared and that McCain and wife Cindy may have at least 8 properties in their collective possession. But Politico.com says all the properties are owned by Cindy, her dependent children or trust and companies under Cindy’s name.

Here’s the full story link: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12700.html

CHESTER, VA. — 11:58 a.m.

As predicted here earlier, the Obama camp, turning on a media dime, has already produced a TV spot lampooning McCain’s memory on the number of houses he and wife Cindy own.

Here is the link to the web version of the ad — entitled “Seven” — on the Obama web site:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/seven_ad

Sources tell the Bourbon Room the ad will soon appear on national cable nets.

Seven, by the way, is the number of homes the St Petersburg Times’ web column Politifact.com says McCain owns with Cindy.

Here is that link:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/635/

Here, by the way, is the McCain campaign’s response, via spokesman Brian Rogers:

“Does a guy who made more than $4 million last year, just got back from vacation on a private beach in Hawaii and bought his own million-dollar mansion with the help of a convicted felon really want to get into a debate on houses? Does a guy who worries about the price of arugula and thinks regular people “cling” to guns and religion in th face of economic hardship really want to have a debate about who’s in touch with regular Americans? The reality is Barack Obama’s plans to raise taxes and opposition to producing more energy here at home as gas prices skyrocket show he’s completely out of touch with the concerns of average Americans.”

Battle joined.

CHESTER, VA. — 11:12 a.m.

At Barack Obama and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine’s outside, picnic-style town hall at John Tyler Community College. If Kaine is not Obama’s running mate — we don’t know yet — he IS the winner of this week’s twist-the-knife-in-with-the-talking-point award (since I just invented this award, we’ll see if it becomes a Bourbon Room fixture).

On Fox and on CNN, Kaine hit McCain for his vague answer to Jonathan Martin of Politico on the relatively simple question of how many houses he and wife Cindy own. Here’s the link to JMart’s story: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12685.html

Kaine said this on Fox: “People are trying to hold on to the ohe one house that they do have and we have a presidential candidate who can’t even, you, I guess, count that high to figure out how many houses he has.”

Obama’s Chicago considers this zinger a bulls-eye within a bulls-eye….a tart amplification of the campaign talking point that McCain’s wealth is an emerging issue and may present an opening to undermine McCain’s “maverick” image.

The campaign is seriously considering (and quite possibly prepping at this hour) a TV ad on this topic. With or without the ad, the campaign and DNC will flog the “houses” story relentlessly today.

CORRECTION: The Architectural Digest spread is about a home the McCain’s owned in north Phoenix but no longer own. McCain is in Sedona, Ariz., today. But that home is NOT the one featured in this link.
Link:http://www.architecturaldigest.com/homes/features/archive/mccain_article_072005

After McCain’s assessment at Rick Warren’s forum on Saturday that “$5 million” is a decent threshold for describing the rich in America — even though McCain quickly sought to retract it — the Obama campaign believes McCain has given it fodder to criticize his image and ability to handle the economy.

This will be a fundamental building block of Obama-DNC attacks on McCain at the Democratic convention.

Quick note: Kaine, in his just-concluded introduction of McCain here, DID NOT mention the McCain houses issues. But he did say a vote for McCain’s economic policies was the real “risk” in this election.

Obama talking now about economy and has mentioned foreclosure crisis and has yet to mention McCain’s memory loss on houses.

At 11:05 a.m., Obama hit McCain on the “$5 million” comment, saying, as he has before that McCain meant “if you’re making $3 million, you’re in the middle class.” He also reprised Phil Gramm’s “mental recession” comments.

At 11:07 a.m. Obama said McCain said yesterday that the “economy was fundamentally strong.”

At 11:08 a.m. Obama mentioned McCain’s inability to describe how many houses he had and referring JMart to his staff. “So they asked his staff and they said ‘at least four.’ At least four! Now think about that. If you don’t know how many hosues you have, it’s not surprising you might think the economy is fundamentally strong. By the way, the answer is John McCain has seven homes. We can’t afford eight more years, or four more years, or one mor year of the same failed economic policies that George Bush has put in place.”

Sometimes there is a disconnect between how hard Obama advisers want to drive a negative message and how far Obama himself is willing to push it. Not today. Obama hit McCain between the eyes. Absent some vice presidential developments, which I do not expect, the soundbite above will drive Obama’s story today.

RICHMOND, VA – 11:45 p.m.

Just arrived in Richmond, so no time for a written post tonight. I put together this vlog instead with links to key polling data below.

done

CBS News/NY Times poll:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/20/opinion/polls/main4368403.shtml

NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080820_NBC-WSJ_Released.pdf

RALEIGH, N.C. — 8:25 p.m. EDT

It wasn’t much, but Obama said “he” when asked at a town hall here just now about his unnamed vice presidential nominee.

Obama didn’t reveal any names (of course), but when describing the characteristics of his running mate, Obama usedthe word “he” three times when discussing the running mate’s approach to governing in an Obama White House.

Among the possible running mates for Obama are two women: New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

After saying his vice president will not, as he implied vice President Cheney had, exercise undue influence on foreign and domestic policy, Obama said of his vice president: “I won’t have my vice president engineer foreign policy for me. The buck will stop with me, because I will be the president. My vice president, also, by the way, my vice president will be a member of the executive branch. He won’t be one of these 4th branches of government where he thinks he’s above the law.”

The second and third uses of “he” could well have been Obama talking about Cheney. the first one, however, could not be so interpreted.
In his long answer about the qualities he was looking for, the junior senator from Illinois said he was looking for “somebody” or “someone,” but the slipped reference to “he” caught the ears of reporters and Obama’s traveling press staff.

“I heard it,” said traveling spokeswoman Jen Psaki. “I don’t think it means anything.”

We shall see.

RALEIGH, N.C. –

In a strategic shift foreshadowed by two days of tougher attacks on GOP rival John McCain, Barack Obama’s campaign will use the four-day Democratic National Convention next week to relentlessly portray McCain as a carbon copy of President Bush and criticize his economic policies, ties to lobbyists and decades-long tenure in Washington.

The Obama campaign, aides confirm, is setting out to offer a stark contrast to McCain and his GOP brethren. The move is a conscious rejection of John Kerry’s decree that his 2004 convention project a positive message about Kerry and the Democratic Party while minimizing or eliminating entirely so-called red meat attacks on President Bush and the GOP.

“The convention will offer a series of contrasts and comparisons of the McCain record so voters can see how clearly the choice will be in November,” campaign spokesman Bill Burton told Fox. “The convention will also introduce Senator Obama to the country, but it will make sure to convey strongly the differences and choices Obama’s campaign presents with McCain’s.”

The convention will also, of course, highlight the Obama biography and serve as the broadest platform to date to introduce Obama to the country.

But far more memorable, perhaps, may be the speeches that attack McCain on the economy and portray, for example, his new-found commitment to offshore oil drilling as an industry-driven flip-flop rather than a shift driven by new facts and circumstances – as McCain characterizes it.

Here’s how Obama’s camp described McCain’s visit today to an offshore oil rig near New Orleans.

“For three decades, as our energy crisis grew, decision-making in Washington has been rigged against our national interests and the interests of American consumers,” Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor said in a statement. “And for almost that long, Senator McCain has been part of the problem. For decades, he has stood with the big oil companies and voted against the development of the alternative energy we need. And now he’s standing with the oil companies in opposing a bipartisan compromise in Congress that would expand offshore drilling and, at the same time, make serious investments in alternative energy to break our dependence on foreign oil. When it comes to solving our energy problems, John McCain is just more of the same and America can’t afford it.”

Obama’s camp offered another taste of things to come with biting remarks from Obama on Monday and Tuesday about McCain’s approach to politics and policy.

Today at the national Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Orlando, Obama struck back at McCain’s speech to the same group Monday.

“…instead of just offering policy answers, he turned to a typical laundry list of political attacks,” Obama said. “He said that I have changed my position on Iraq when I have not. He said that I am for a path of ‘retreat and failure.’ And he declared, ‘Behind all of these claims and positions by Senator Obama lies the ambition to be president’ – suggesting, as he has so many times, that I put personal ambition before my country. That is John McCain’s prerogative. He can run that kind of campaign, and – frankly – that’s how political campaigns have been run in recent years. But I believe the American people are better than that. I believe that this defining moment demands something more of us. If we think that we can use the same partisan playbook where we just challenge our opponent’s patriotism to win an election, then the American people will lose.”

On Monday in New Mexico, Obama said McCain’s support for Bush-era tax cuts renders him out-of-touch to the concerns of average Americans. Obama also said McCain’s political advisers don’t know how to debate issues, so they’ve resorted to undermining Obama personally.

Obama strategists believe Kerry’s convention was too passive and gave Bush and the Republicans space to create their own message without having to respond to Democratic criticisms. The advisers say the convention contrasts will not be personal, but will cast a harsh light on McCain’s record, lobbyist relationships and similarities with Bush.

The approach is also meant to minimize the heavy emphasis on Obama’s charisma-driven campaign, rooting the attacks in choices about which candidate can better address voters’ economic anxieties.

The strategy does not come without risks.

First, it could damage Obama’s image as a rise-above-it politician who doesn’t want the campaign to become an endless series of charges-and-counter charges. Engaging McCain and attacking him could allow McCain to say Obama’s not really a new and inspiration leader, but a brass-knuckle politician like all the rest. Second, it’s sometimes unwise in politics to re-fight the last war with new tactics. Third, it was Kerry’s emphasis on a positive message that allowed Obama to wow the convention floor and first attract national attention with his upbeat keynote address.

Even so, Democratic strategists say Obama needs to toughen his stand on McCain and the convention is the best place to start.

“They do not feel like they’re slipping (in the polls), but they just think they need a clear definition of McCain supporting Bush economic policies, as well as being totally a DC figure,” said one Democrat familiar with the Obama campaign’s thinking.

As for the risks of “going negative,” another top Democratic strategist said it’s not a close call.

“He needs to do it because if you don’t fight back voters think you won’t fight for them,” said Mary Anne Marsh. “Therefore you have to do it to win their support. The benefit outweighs the cost.”

But other Democratic strategists wonder if taking on McCain might backfire, provoking sympathy for a Vietnam war hero who has built up a reputation – muddled to some degree by election-year conversions – of a GOP maverick who has defied lobbyists by pushing campaign finance reform and seeking to block pork-barrel spending carried out via congressional earmarks.

“The question would be how would McCain respond,” said one Democratic strategist. “Typically, you would want the status quo of this campaign to continue (in a pro-Democrat year in the polls). It’s risky. They must have polled this and focused-grouped it.”

ORLANDO, FL – 1 a.m. EDT

Amid a flood of feverish speculation, all of it pumping up the level of drama behind the announcement, numerous Democratic sources tell Fox that Barack Obama will announce his choice for a running mate on Thursday or Friday.

Officially, the Obama campaign remains tight-lipped and playfully coy about the pick as they savor the massive media hunger for any morsel of detail that might suggest the identity of Obama’s choice or the timing of his or her national introduction.

Close aides to Obama refuse to say whether the choice has been made, though they concede the window of opportunity is closing to finalize the choice – if it hasn’t already been made.

Obama aides traveling with the senator waved reporters off speculation the announcement would come Tuesday. A senior Democratic official familiar with the situation and Obama’s deliberations said it was extremely unlikely the running mate choice would be revealed Tuesday or Wednesday.

Democrats close to the situation expect the announcement to come Thursday. The common speculation — and it’s nothing more than that — is that the unveiling will occur in Chicago. The theory behind this notion is that a Chicago event near the campaign’s headquarters would minimize secrecy-sapping trips by advance staff to lay the groundwork for the elaborate event.

The names most commonly associated with Obama’s choice are: Senators Evan Bayh of Indiana, Joe Biden of Delaware, Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and John Kerry of Massachusetts; Governors Tim Kaine of Virginia and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas; and former Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia.

Hillary Clinton no longer appears a viable option, though many Democratic strategists say they won’t rule her out entirely – despite numerous signals it won’t be her – until the decision is announced.

Other Democratic sources caution that the running mate could be a wild card whose name has yet to surface and suggest a prominent figure from the business world or a retired military officer could be chosen.

The person Obama chooses, Democrats say, is almost taking a backseat to how the selection will serve as a metaphor for how Obama sees his own campaign progressing in this massively pro-Democratic political year.

“They have many things to do before the convention and sharpening the message against John McCain is only part of it,” a top Democratic strategist said. “The pick will tell us how Obama thinks he’s doing.”

Some Democrats believe if Obama picks any of the established U.S. Senators it will suggest his campaign is lacking Washington experience and gravitas and – in the case of Bayh, Biden and Kerry – needs to bolster the ticket’s credibility on foreign policy and national security. This would also be true if Obama selected Nunn, a southerner who carved out a reputation as a national security thinker and innovator.

In other words, if Obama dips into the pool of senatorial skill, it will be viewed by some Democrats as a sign of caution about the state of his campaign that signals some political holes need to be filled.

“Caution has been their approach all along and I see no sign they will deviate from that,” said one Democratic strategist involved in several presidential campaigns but not linked to Obama’s camp.

If Obama taps Kaine or Sebelius or a so-called wild card, Democrats say it will reflect Obama’s near-boundless confidence in his ability to transcend concerns about his inexperience. In essence, Democrats say, the selection of a young governor, as a running mate would dismiss the straightjacket of Washington calculations and in look, voice and resume, evoke the central and unshakable Obama themes of “change” and “hope.”

Lastly, Democrats expect Obama’s choice to affect GOP rival John McCain’s selection of a running mate. Democrats sense McCain – who will unveil his choice on Aug. 29 in Dayton, Ohio – is waiting for Obama, to see how his choice could counter Obama’s push for an advantage in the Electoral College calculations. By this reasoning, McCain would counter a Kaine pick with Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor in order to keep Virginia in play. Similarly, if Obama picked Bayh, they assume McCain might go for former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge to keep McCain competitive in the industrial Midwest where Bayh has a sizable profile (at least in Indiana and parts of Ohio).

The layers, therefore, of speculation run much deeper than the traditional who and when. The layers go to a near-existential examination by Obama of the state of his campaign and a three-layered chess game with McCain about the composition of both presidential tickets.

SAN DIEGO — 8 a.m. PDT

As Barack Obama heads to Hawaii for a week-long vacation, its virtually certain he will use this time to pick his running mate (if he hasn’t already). In this decision, the “who” seems less important than the “what.”

I don’t mean to suggest the person isn’t important. Not at all.

What I do mean is that the “what” behind the selection will define the direction of the Obama candidacy as much if not more than the “who.”

By “what” I mean, what is the premise of the campaign at this stage? If the premise is “change” must the running mate personify change? If so, this eliminates a vast array of possible contenders (basically the entire roster of U.S. Senators).

If the premise is not change, what is it? Is it governing to achieve change? If so, must the running mate carry the gravitas, record and rectitude of a wise Washington figure — someone well-versed in legislative dynamics who knows where the bodies are buried and how to curry favor with potentially recalcitrant committee chairs on Capitol Hill? If this is the premise, several other potential running mates are instantly eliminated (basically, all governors and private-sector and retired military types).

What if the premise is neither change nor governing, but leadership in dangerous times? If so, it seems certain the running mate must fulfill a perceived gap in foreign policy and national security experience that many analysts, Democratic strategists and pundits believe to be Obama’s central biographical weakness. If this is the premise, then only a handful of Democrats would appear to fill the bill.

It appears there is no Democrat who would allow Obama to hit all three categories: change, governing and leadership.

[For this discussion, it's obvious millions of Hillary Clinton supporters believe she would do all this and much, much more for Obama. But her Tuesday speaking slot at the Democratic Convention followed by former President Bill Clinton's speech on Wednesday -- just before the vice presidential speech -- assures the convention will not produce an Obama-Clinton ticket. But it may produce some made-for-TV "catharsis."]

In all my conversations with Obama aides, I’ve never detected a sense that they or the candidate accept the premise that Obama MUST address his perceived deficiency in foreign policy and national security experience.

If anything, Obama has rejected this notion — arguing with vigor and conviction that Washington’s “experience” led the nation into a ruinous war in Iraq (with prominent Democrats such as Clinton, Dick Gephardt and even enthusiastic Obama supporter Jay Rockefeller backing the preemptive war).

Obama has also asserted that he’s been ahead of the curve on dealing more intently with Pakistan and trying to find ways to police and secure loose nuclear material. On these three issues, Obama has won crowds and votes by arguing that his “inexperience” helped him see things more clearly and develop better potential solutions. Whether this is true is open to debate. That Obama believes it to be true is not.

I wonder if at this very important moment Obama would suddenly reverse course and acknowledge through his choice of a running mate that yes, indeed, the Beltway bromides about him were always true, that he does lack foreign policy and national security experience and that he needs a crutch to compensate for this suddenly discovered political limp.

Therefore, what Obama believes about himself will determine whom he choses as his running mate. He’s believed one thing from the beginning. If he stops believing it, I would venture to guess that shift will weigh more in the minds of supporters and opponents than whomever stands next to the freshman senator from Illinois.

For further insight, The Bourbon Room turned to Larry Sabato, who leads the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and Steve McMahon, a top Democratic strategist. I interviewed both separately. Sabato is first, followed by McMahon.

LARRY SABATO

Q: What about Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine?

Sabato: He’s clearly on a short list. How short the list is, is in dispute. But I think Kaine has such personal chemistry with Obama that he probably is under serious consideration.

Q: Loyalty works in Kaine’s favor?

Sabato: Loyalty is one of the major reasons why Kaine is on the short list. He was the first governor outside of Illinois to endorse Obama and that was back when Obama wasn’t considered a particularly powerful candidate.

Q: What’s the downside with Kaine?

Sabato: If inexperience is the Achilles Heel for Barack Obama, then he adds another Achilles Heel with Tim Kaine. Because Kaine has no military, no defense experience. Those are the precisely the areas where Obama needs to strengthen his own portfolio.

Q: But what about Obama’s sense that he doesn’t lack foreign policy experience and has shown better judgment?

Sabato: You hear lots of different things. I suppose one of the theories within the Obama camp is if Obama picks someone with foreign policy or national security experience, it simply points out to everybody the fact that Obama doesn’t have much. If they choose someone who reinforces Obama’s (change) themes then perhaps that adds some punch to the Obama approach for the general election. I don’t necessarily buy that. I think tickets are for balancing. We don’t balance tickets in the same way we once did. They used to be based almost entirely on balancing geography or on balancing a party faction. But there are other ways to balance a ticket. And the best way to balance for a president’s success in office is to bring somebody on the ticket who has some strengths in policy and in experience that the president doesn’t have

Q: Is Kaine a plus because of Obama’s near-obsession with winning Virginia’s 13 electoral votes?

Sabato: The greatest advantage of putting Kaine on the ticket with Obama is winning Virginia. Right now, Virginia is on the edge of the butter knife. It could go either way. The incumbent governor, who is relatively popular, can almost certainly add a point or two to Obama. And that may be all he needs.

Q: Who beside Kaine would work for Obama?

Sabato: Probably the strongest and safest candidate is Sen. Evan Bayh from Indiana. He brings everything to Obama with very little cost: two terms as governor, two terms as a senator, strengths in domestic policy, and strengths in foreign policy. He also potentially brings a heavily Red State to the Democratic ticket. There have been some polls showing obama within hailing distance of McCain in Indiana. With Bayh on the ticket, it’s not impossible that Obama could carry Indiana. Plus, it’s right next to Ohio. Bayh has real strength in Ohio. There are several media markets that overlap between Indiana and Ohio. I think probably Bayh’s greatest strength for Obama is being the kind of vice presidential candidate and potentially a Vice President that Obama can really depend on — who won’t overshadow the president, who is not gaffe-inclined and who is squeaky clean.

Q: And Bayh was with Hillary Clinton, while Kaine was always with Obama…

Sabato: Kaine strongly supported Obama from the beginning. Bayh was a strong Hillary Clinton supporter and I think the Clinton folks at this point would like to have something thrown in their direction. And the vice presidential nominee would be a substaintial piece to throw.

Q: Could Obama pick a woman who isn’t Hillary Clinton?

Sabato: Superficially, you’d think that if Hillary Clinton weren’t chosen, that Clinton and her supporters would want another woman. But the other theory is that if you pick another woman it’s an insult to Hillary Clinton. It’s really substituting and promoting another woman over Hillary Clinton, who got about half the vote and half the delegates.

STEVE MCMAHON:

Q: What are the choices confronting Obama with his running mate pick?

McMahon: There are two paths here for Sen. Obama. One is to continue on the change trajectory and ‘we’re bringing new leadership and a new style’ and that might favor Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia. He’s somebody that most people aren’t familiar with and don’t know very much about. There’s the other path, which is probably a little bit safer, which is the experience path. Bringing somebody onto the ticket with Washington, D.C. experience, with national security experience, with a foreign policy credential. Someone like a Joe Biden (Delware Democrat) or perhaps an Evan Bayh. I think those two paths kind of diverge and it will be interesting to see which way he goes.

Q: Do you think Obama needs a running mate with experience?

McMahon: I think if you look at why Sen. Obama hasn’t been able to move up to 50% or 51% or 52% in the polls, it’s because, as he says, people are taking a look under the hood and kicking the tires. I think if he had somebody with some national security experience, with some Washington experience, somebody who could do for him what (then-Texas Sen. and Senate Majority Leader) Lyndon Johnson did for John Kennedy (in 1960), it would really benefit him enormously. Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton, all those names come to mind.

Q: How big a decision is this for Obama?

McMahon: This is the frist major decision Sen. Obama is going to have to make all by himself in this campaign. And it’s going to have lasting implications. Does he want to continue this trajectory of change, bring someone most Americans maybe have never heard of, Kaine or someone like that? Or does he want to do something to shore up an area where many Americans might be asking questions — national security, Washington experience and that would bring someone like Biden, Sen. Clinton or someone like Bayh into play.

Q: A big decision means lots of advice, right?

McMahon: There’s no doubt that Obama is getting a lot of advice from a lot of different people, from Caroline Kennedy to his campaign staff. There are geographic considerations, there are gender considerations, there are political considerations. But at the end of the day this is a decision for Sen. Obama and he should base it on one thing: who does he want sitting down the hallway from him, who does he trust to be there in the middle of the night or first thing in the morning when a crisis hits, who is it that he feels he can work best with? That, at the end of the day, is how he ought to make this decision.

Q: What about loyalty as a factor?

McMahon: Loyalty has been a big factor in the Obama campaign from the beginning. Gov. Kaine of Virginia was very loyal in February of 2007 when he endorsed Obama. His campaign staff is shared, his pollster is somebody the Obama campaign uses — so he’s a well-known commodity in that sense. And I think he was critically important to winning Virginia for Sen. Obama (in the primaries) and he helps to put Virginia in play in the fall. If Barack Obama can win Virginia, it’s going to be almost impossible for John McCain to win this election. I think that there’s a comfort level with Gov. Kaine that perhaps doesn’t seem to exist yet with Sen. Bayh. Having said that, Sen. Bayh would be a great choice because he does bring Washington experience. He’s got a foreign policy credential. And he would put Indiana in play, which normally is out of reach for most Democrats.

Q: Could Obama pick a woman not named Hillary Clinton?

McMahon: There’s not another woman out there today who would bring what Sen. Clinton would bring to the ticket. And I think for many Clinton supporters, it would be very difficult to see another woman like Gov. (Kathleen) Sebelius, as qualified as she may be, take the spot of what most people or many people would regard to be the spot that belongs to Sen. Clinton. If it’s going to go to a woman, I think most Clinton supporters would hope and expect that it would be Sen. Clinton.

SAN DIEGO — 9 a.m. PDT

Does Barack Obama have a problem with the polls? Is his campaign less effective than it should be? Is there legitimate cause for concern that Obama could lose in what appears to be the most favorable non-scandal (meaning non-Watergate) year for Democrats since 1932?

Two columns today take this issue on directly and here are the links:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12334.htl

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/obama_hasnt_closed_the_deal_ye.html

Here is some additional data to consider when pondering the strength of Obama’s current campaign.

I’ve calculated the average of the 15 most recent head-to-head national polls and Obama’s average is 47.2 and John McCain’s is 43.0. In three of these 15 polls Obama hit the 50 percent threshold (50 twice and 51 once).

I then calculated the average of the 15 polls taken in the 2004 Bush-Kerry race at roughly equivalent times in campaign season (the Democratic convention was at the end of July in 2004, so I pushed back the 15-poll average to just before that convention).

The average of the 15 polls then (the last one was a Quinnipiac survey that concluded on July 22) showed John Kerry leading President Bush with an average of 45.93 to 44.06.

Even though some Democrats tell me they believe Obama is currently running behind Kerry’s 2004 campaign, the statistical evidence — at least in a 15-poll seasonal average — does not show that.

However, comparing polls such as this shows much less than half the picture. And it’s the data beneath the topline numbers that give some Democrats concern as they wonder if Obama’s running as strong as he could be or should be.

Consider this. In a Newsweek poll taken on the two days leading up to Kerry’s July 29, 2004 acceptance speech in Boston, Bush’s approval rating was 47 percent, his disapproval rating was 45 percent. The national right track/wrong track number showed 58 percent of those surveyed thought the country was on the wrong track.

Fast-forward to the present. The most recent AP/Ipsos poll shows Bush’s approval rating is 31 percent and his disapproval rating is 66 percent. The wrong track number is 76 percent compared to a right track number of 18 percent.

In other words, Bush’s approval rating is 16 percent lower than it was about the time Kerry claimed the nomination and the national wrong track number is 18 points higher. And yet, Obama’s numbers over McCain are only slightly better than Kerry’s numbers over Bush.

What is happening here?

Democrats are loathe to criticize Obama’s campaign publicly for fear of retribution. But two top Democratic strategists — neither of whom worked on Hillary Clinton’s campaign — have told me Obama has lost the initiative on bread-and-butter issues and that his European trip cost him dearly in terms of honing sensible , memorable and repeatable middle class message.

They both also believe the European trip failed the most basic test of political stagecraft — who made the first commercial off of it. McCain made two and though he endured some criticism, the ads drove the McCain “message” harder than McCain himself had ben driving it.

What should Obama do?

Well, polling data offers some helpful clues.

The most recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey of 914 registered voters from July 27-29 (MoE +/- 3%) shows the following issue advantages for Obama.

Health Care — 56 percent to 39 percent over McCain

Taxes — 51 percent to 45 percent over McCain

Jobs — 57 percent to 38 percent over McCain

Gas Prices — 51 percent to 40 percent over McCain

With issue advantages like these, this natural question asserts itself. What message have you heard from Obama recently that specifically exploits these massive political advantages?

What have you heard about health care (except for the Democratic platform reflecting more of Clinton’s ideas than Obama’s)? What have you heard about taxes (the windfall profits gambit might fit into this matrix, but we’ll need some polling data next week to confirm)? What about jobs? What about gas prices (again, Obama’s energy week may help here but it’s been a mixed bag so far with clear –though denied reversals on drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf and tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve).

Democrats are always in a mood to fret and some wonder why Obama lets McCain off the hook for one-hour, one-day or one-week on issues fundamental to middle-class and lower-middle class voters, the very voters in the battleground states that hold the key to an Obama victory.

Why indeed.