As this post first predicted Saturday, the news to come out of Iowa would soon revolve around direct engagement by Barack Obama with John Edwards.

It started Saturday over health care and escalated today when Obama, campaigning in Spencer, challenged Edwards’ U.S. Senate record in confronting special interest lobbyists.

Obama said “nobody in this race” has done more to reduce the influence of lobbyists in Washington. “Senator Edwards, who is a good guy, he’s been talking a lot about ‘I’m going to fight the lobbyists and the special interests in Washington, ” Obama said, calling out Edwards in his stump speech for the first time in recent memory. “Well, the question you have to ask is: ‘Were you fighting for (citizens) when you were in the Senate.”

Obama has an admirable record of taking up ethics reform in the Illinois Legislature and the U.S. Senate. Edwards has come to this issue late, adopting a no-special-interest-donations pledge when he launched his presidential campaign after having accepted them as a senator.

That pledge put pressure on Clinton and Obama to minimize political action committee (PAC) donations.

Obama does not accept them, but has used previously collected special interest contributions to his federal leadership PAC to make donations to lawmakers and interest groups in early primary and caucus states. Clinton has and apparently always will accept PAC donations.

These details are not trivial, but they are less important than what Obama’s call-out of Edwards tells us. As The Bourbon Room discussed Saturday, if Obama intensified his engagement with Edwards, it would signal that Obama sees Edwards as a big and possibly bigger threat in Iowa than Clinton. [For all the "fascinating" ramifications of a long-running Obama-Edwards fight, please consult the archives for "A New Level of Engagement"].

On a day when Hillary made it on all three major networks plus Fox and MSNBC, it stands out as doubly significant that Obama spent more time focused on Edwards than Clinton.

There is still a sense in the Obama and Edwards camps that Clinton is struggling and has yet to stop a gradual but visible slide in overnight tracking polls. Hillary’s overt efforts to play up her “human” send an unmistakable signal of internal campaign unease.

The campaign knew from the start Hillary was not viewed as warm or approachable. It sought to compensate by accepting that frame but turning it into a positive by preaching the national imperative to elect a no-nonsense, policy-driven, president “ready to lead on day one.”

Watching Hillary use the coffee sipping patrons at The Drake Diner in Des Moines as a humanizing backdrop and seeing her dispatch friends from New York and Arkansas to “tell personal stories” door to door about her in key Iowa precincts tells you all you need to know about Clinton’s internal polling data.

It appears the Obama-Edwards confrontation will continue.

Edwards must win Iowa, that means responding to every Obama attack and focusing on mobilizing his more reliable caucus-going backers. Obama needs to keep Edwards from over-taking him because an Edwards win deprives Obama of much-needed momentum for New Hampshire and gives Clinton, even if she finishes a close third, a chance to rebound there against Edwards.

If Obama heads to Las Vegas without a win, he will be hard-pressed to offer himself as a dynamic leader with a winning message. Instead, he may start to resemble Morris Udall as the affable and even lovable Democrat who can’t quite ever seem to do any better than second. Not where Obama would want to be.

Herein lies a lesson about how a race can change before your eyes.

A month ago, if Obama finished a close second to Clinton in Iowa it would have looked and felt more like a “win.” That’s much less true now. A second place finish to Edwards would look and feel deflating, even if Obama finishes ahead of a third-place Clinton.

Why?

Because doubts run rampant that Edwards can use a win in Iowa to win in New Hampshire. Those doubts are much less prevalent if Obama wins Iowa. Many inside and outside the Obama camp believe an Iowa victory could propel him to victory in New Hampshire (this is especially true if Edwards finishes second and Hillary third).

The stakes, therefore, are extremely high for Obama and Edwards. By their actions they are telling us they see the race as coming more down to them than a three-way dead heat with Clinton. At this stage, pay the closest attention to what the candidates actually do and say. That will tell you where the race is heading (even more reliable than The Bourbon Room).

Council Bluffs, Iowa — In her revised stump speech today to kickoff a five-day “Hil-a-copter” tour of Iowa, Hillary Clinton added a new riff to her latest meditation on change.

After repeating the riff she debuted at Thursday’s Iowa Public Television debate that change must be worked for, not hoped for (Barack Obama), or demanded (John Edwards), Clinton added that to achieve necessary “change” a president needed to know “when to stand your ground and when to find common ground. ” Lest anyone miss the point, Clinton added the rhetorical candied cherry. “This is not a dictatorship.
It was safe to assume this was a direct reference to John Edwards. But assumptions usually work out poorly. Clinton staff confirmed Edwards was the target.

Clinton drew (by my count) fewer than 250 people to her much-ballyhooed “Every County Counts ” launch at Thomas Jefferson High School here. Twenty minutes before the event was scheduled to start, the room was nearly half empty. But even when the crowd trickled in to fill the available seats, all the tell-tale signs of advance team “shrinking the room” tactics were well in evidence.

The rows had double-First-Class leg room. The aisles were unnaturally large. Clinton’s podium was shoved into the room. And the press corps and risers were unnecessarily close to Clinton (unless, of course, the idea was to make the room look small and packed on TV cameras). Big swaths of unused space was filled up by three tables of coffee and cookies (who said small crowds are all bad). In characteristic Clinton fashion, the event started late — 30 minutes late this time.

Team Clinton announced the event on Friday and brought former U.S. Sen. Bob Kerrey from neighboring Nebraska (just across the river from here) in to announce his endorsement. Kerrey appeared genuine and that struck me. I well remember his often biting criticism President Bill Clinton’s political timidity.

“Please don’t let us down,” Kerrey implored, speaking to potential caucus-going Democrats. “We are counting on you.”

Then Kerrey, one of those politicians least likely to invoke prayer in public, concluded with this: “I give you my senator and soon, I pray, our president.”

Despite Kerrey’s presence and all the advance hoo-hah of the Hil-a-copter, the event still felt underwhelming — especially since camp Clinton pointed to it as a demonstration of newfound energy.

Clinton gave it her best, promising to bring “perseverance and perspiration” to the Oval Office. “Our campaign is energized, we’re picking up momentum and we’re going all the way to January 3rd.”

On the road to January 3rd, Clinton will no doubt keep an eye peeled for looming Democratic dictators.

JOHNSTON, Iowa — Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman , Terry McAuliffe wants all those concerned to know all is well in camp Clinton.

“You know, you hear this in campaigns all the time, McAuliffe said, referring to persistent reports of turmoil, panic and back-biting as Hillary’s numbers slide in early primary and caucus states. “We are the front runner, everybody’s been going after us. We feel very good about where we are. I’m chairman of the campaign and I can tell you we are happy. Everybody’s working together. We’re all focused to get people to the polls on election day and getting them to vote for Hillary Clinton, the candidate of choice and the candidate who can bring change.”

Without prompting McAuliffe named names in how integrated things are in the Clinton campaign, and sounding very much like a general manager of a sports team, made sure to send a vote of confidence to campaign manager Patty Solis Doyle: “There could be 5 or 6 polls out on a day and Hillary could be up in four, but if we’re down in one, that one gets played. And then all of a sudden the campaign is in trouble. Everyone outside the campaign likes to make circular firing squads. I talk to the president every day, I talk to Hillary every day and I talk to Patty Solis almost every day. We’re all focused and working hard. People on the outside like to chatter, but you know that’s not going to get us off our mission of getting Hillary Clinton elected.”

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