Somber Obama, Upbeat Campaign
Friday, October 24th, 2008HONOLULU, Hawaii – Barack Obama tried to go for a walk outside the apartment building where spent many formative years and where his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, lay dying.
It was a simple act, one it takes only a moment to consider and appreciate. Imagine the neighborhood you grew up in. More than the neighborhood in which you raise your children (if you have them), the neighborhood of your youth holds more power, more mystery, more therapeutic powers.
Your neighborhood quite probably lives in your memory more vividly than it did when you scampered or strode about in it as a child or young adult. Mine certainly does. You remember the trees you climbed, how the sky peaked through the leaves. You remember the sidewalk, the cracks you jumped over, the slippery parts when it rained. You remember the gusts of wind that – no matter the season – could steal you away to an instant daydream or carry the whiff of a neighbor’s baking pie or your mother’s browning pot roast.
Almost everyone has a neighborhood. And for almost everyone it is a more wonderful place in memory than in reality. For this reason, going home brings some degree of peace. Neighborhood peace. The peace of the familiar. The peace of the remembered. The peace of something sacred, even if looks to everyone else so irretrievably plain. This peace that can be found, is it infinite peace? The peace of the poet or philosopher? No. Usually, it’s transient, human peace. Fragile. Conflicted. Warped. And it’s all we’ve got; all the indifferent universe will grant — even in times of profound grief.
For a few moments, Obama sought this type of peace. Traveling press cameras were there, of course. Obama shrugged. He knows the drill. His grief, though, was evident. And why not? Tute (his nickname for Madelyn) is the last living link to those who raised him. An orphan since 1995, Obama is about to know a barren new life — one without any of the rocks upon which he has always tried to stand.
Fate created an odd collision of emotions for Obama.
House before Obama took his lonely walk, his campaign manager, David Plouffe, told reporters the campaign now sees a “clear path” to victory. Plouffe said no John Kerry state is in jeopardy and several George Bush states are now winnable. Plouffe said the Obama tide could sweep up Montana, Indiana and West Virginia.
The key to this optimism can be found in early voting statistics. Republicans have historically out-organized Democrats on early and absentee voting. Not this cycle. See these numbers, all provided by Jon Carson, Obama-Biden campaign field director.
Democrats are voting early at significantly higher rates than Republicans compared to 2004:
North Carolina – 2008 to date
All Votes By Party Registration
DEMOCRAT
520,064
56%
REPUBLICAN
254,515
27%
UNAFFILIATED
155,476
17%
North Carolina – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Votes By Party Registration
DEMOCRAT
479,305
48%
REPUBLICAN
363,294
37%
UNAFFILIATED
149,632
15%
Nevada – 2008 to date
All Voting
DEMOCRAT
107,122
53%
REPUBLICAN
63,577
32%
UNAFFILIATED
30,938
15%
Total
201,637
Nevada – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Votes By Party Registration
DEMOCRAT
147,408
45%
REPUBLICAN
135,743
41%
UNAFFILIATED
45,211
14%
Iowa – 2008 to date
All Voting
DEMOCRAT
132,882
50%
REPUBLICAN
76,689
29%
UNAFFILIATED
53,787
20%
Iowa – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
DEMOCRAT
185,115
48%
REPUBLICAN
118,167
30%
UNAFFILIATED
86,071
22%
New Mexico – 2008 to date
All Voting
DEMOCRAT
84,123
56%
REPUBLICAN
49,145
33%
UNAFFILIATED
16,484
11%
New Mexico – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
DEMOCRAT
178,216
50%
REPUBLICAN
132,505
38%
UNAFFILIATED
42,461
12%
Colorado – 2008 to date
All Voting
DEMOCRAT
184,352
39%
REPUBLICAN
181,424
38%
UNAFFILIATED
110,284
23%
Colorado – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
DEMOCRAT
307,244
34%
REPUBLICAN
384,642
42%
UNAFFILIATED
221,336
24%
Florida – 2008 to date
All Voting
DEMOCRAT
650,363
43%
REPUBLICAN
651,700
43%
UNAFFILIATED
225,980
14%
Florida – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
DEMOCRAT
1,056,986
42%
REPUBLICAN
1,097,616
43%
UNAFFILIATED
386,367
15%
New and sporadic voting Democrats are voting early at higher rates than new or sporadic voting Republicans:
Colorado – 2008 to date
There are 233,878 new Democrats – 101,595 (43%) have requested mail in ballots.
There are 195,794 new Republicans – 70,248 (36%) have requested mail in ballots.
20% of all Democrats voting by mail have never voted in a general election before.
North Carolina – 2008 to date
There are 816,801 new Democrats – 70,561 (9%) have voted early.
There are 491,106 sporadic Democrats – 91,758 (19%) have voted early.
There are 533,490 new Republicans – 30,676 (6%) have requested mail in ballots.
There are 397,719 sporadic Republicans – 56,418 (14%) have voted early.
18% of all Democrats voting early are new Democrats who have never voted in a general election before and there are a lot more New Democrats.
15% of all Republican voting early are new Republicans
Nevada – 2008 to date
There are 170,672 new Democrats – 21,566 (13%) have voted early.
There are 69,979 sporadic Democrats – 13,305 (19%) have voted early.
There are 98,262 new Republicans – 8,243 (8%) have requested mail in ballots.
There are 52,019 sporadic Republicans – 7,256 (14%) have voted early.
40% of all Democrats voting early are new or Sporadic Democrats
30% of all Republican voting early are new or Sporadic Republicans
Iowa – 2008 to date
There are 103,449 new Democrats – 12,874 (12%) have voted early.
There are 92,479 sporadic Democrats – 20,686 (22%) have voted early.
There are 73,725 new Republicans – 5,414 (7%) have requested mail in ballots.
There are 71,647 sporadic Republicans – 11,577 (16%) have voted early.
On the day his campaign manager told the world he may be the next leader of the free world, Obama strode down Young Street behind his grandmother’s apartment in blue jeans, brown flip flops, sunglasses and a shirt — looking for transient peace in he world he knows will soon engulf him and in which he walk more alone and over more rocks than ever.
