Does John McCain Have a Tax Problem? Answer: Probably
Sunday, August 31st, 2008BATTLE CREEK, Michigan — Based on the crowd reaction to recent attacks from Barack Obama and Joe Biden about John McCain’s tax policy, the Republican nominee may have something to worry about.
Obama and Biden drew huge crowds, I saw them myself, in Beaver, Pa. (8,000 people on Friday night), Dublin, Ohio (19,000 people on Saturday night) and here in Battle Creek (17,500 people) tonight.
The crowds roar with approval when Obama and Biden describe their plans for a middle class tax cut and boo loudly at statistics showing how McCain’s continuation of the Bush tax cuts favor the wealthy. Of course, these are partisan Obama crowds. But it would be unwise for anyone seriously backing McCain to dismiss their full-throated roars for Obama-Biden on an issue that historically has favored the GOP nominee.
Interestingly, the smallest crowd Obama and Biden drew was in the the most Democratic territory they visited on their three-state tour of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. Beaver County (in which the city of Beaver is situated) backed John Kerry over President Bush 42,146 to 39,916.
The city limits of Dublin, Ohio, touch three counties: Franklin, Delaware and Union. Franklin County is home to the capitol of Columbus and Kerry carried it 285,801 to 237,253 over Bush (a margin of 48,548 votes). But Bush carried Delaware and Union counties by 35,300 votes over Kerry (69,013 to 33,713). In other words, Bush used victories in two counties to take away most of Kerry’s natural advantage in Franklin County. For Obama to win Ohio, he must roll up votes in Franklin, which he will, but also roll them up in counties like Delaware and Union (which, judging by the hordes who stood in the sun for nearly four hours waiting for him, he just might).
Battle Creek isn’t really a suburb, sitting as it does on the edge of a triangle that has Grand Rapids to the north, Kalamazoo to the west and Ann Arbor to the east. But this is not harshly anti-Bush terrain. In 2004, the president out-polled Kerry in Calhoun County (in which Battle Creek is situated) by 2,202 votes (32,093 to 29,891). In neighboring Kalamazoo County to the east, Kerry beat Bush by 4,315 votes (61,462 to 57,147). In Jackson county immediately to the east, Bush beat Kerry by 9,004 votes (40,029 to 31,025). In the three counties, Bush beat Kerry 129,269 to 122,378.
The point of these county portraits is two-fold. One, to show Obama and Biden are traveling to swing territory and drawing huge crowds and undeniable enthusiasm. Two, that the Obama tax message appears to be working in areas where the issue has been a plus for the GOP.
Add to this the mounting evidence that McCain’s TV commercials assailing Obama’s tax policy contain serious distortions, if not out-right lies.
On Aug. 8, FactCheck.org, published this report on a spate of new McCain TV spots on Obama and taxes.
Read it here: www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/more_tax_deceptions.html
That report followed one in July that raised similar concerns about the truthfulness of the McCain attacks on Obama. Read it here: www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/the_32000_question.html
And today The Washington Post published this blistering editorial that comes as close as any Beltway publication can to using the word “lie” to describe McCain’s criticism of Obama’s tax policies. Read it here:
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/30/AR2008083001681.html
The Post editorial specifically mentions a side-by-side analysis of McCain and Obama tax policies by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center. Here is the link to the center’s updated comparison posted on Aug. 28: www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/url.cfm?ID=411750
Both McCain and Obama would cuts taxes, but Obama’s tax cuts would be targeted to the middle class and partially offset by higher taxes on the wealthy (those earning more than $250,000).
But on the stump this weekend, when either Obama or Biden (they both hit the issue) said they would cut taxes for “95 percent of those who earn a pay check,” the crowds in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan shouted their approval.
The tax debate has just begun and McCain is losing credibility among the non-partisan bean counters and the larger media organizations that have done their own compare and contrast exercises.
With more than two months to go, the Obama camp will have plenty of time to script TV ads accusing McCain of distortions. For all these reasons, McCain may have more to worry about on the tax front than any Republican presidential candidate in a generation.

